Russia was hit in 2014 by three powerful shocks, only partially connected to each other, the effects of which have led to talk of a "perfect storm" for their ability to severely penalize an already vulnerable economy that has been slowing down since 2011. The Western sanctions linked to the conflict in Ukraine, the capital flight and the consequent depreciation of the ruble and, finally, the substantial drop in the price of oil have had, for various reasons, highly negative repercussions on all components of Russian domestic demand and also for exports, made up for almost 70% of products from the energy sector.
Thus, GDP contracted by 2,2% annually in the first quarter of 2015, albeit less than initially expected. However, it is expected that the Russian economy will return to growth before the end of 2015, also thanks to the stabilization activity implemented by the Central Bank which, by manipulating the interest rate and letting the ruble float freely, after fifteen years of interventions on the market to contain its volatility, has gradually restored confidence in the system.
Signs of a reawakening of activity are already emerging from cyclical indicators. In the absence of the structural reforms desired by the Russian institutions themselves, however, the growth potential in the medium term will be considerably lower than that experienced in the XNUMXs.
