Slow down, but the descent of Piazza Affari does not stop -0,21% after the landslide the day before. Even if the green light to the EU Recovery Fund by the German Constitutional Court has calmed spirits on the eve of the ECB meeting. In this context, however, investors are rediscovering more defensive themes.
The European Stoxx index of Pharmaceutical sector gains 0,6%, in line with the performance of the main index: this could be the seventh positive week in a row. Since the beginning of the year, however, the sector is still lagging behind: +4% against the +9,50% recorded by the global Stoxx. The delay can be explained by the greater propensity of investors to go in search of the sectors most exposed to the restart of the cycle, but the latest numbers on the pandemic in some important geographical areas of the world have curbed enthusiasm, to the extent that the pharmaceutical index in the last five sessions is the best in Europe with a gain of 2% against a flat performance of the global Stoxx.
This morning the Swiss Roche group, one of the big names in the sector, communicated first quarter data showing sales down 1% to 14,9 billion Swiss francs (about 13,5 billion euros) and up 3% at constant exchange rates, despite an increase in sales of coronavirus tests.
In the business square Recordati increases by 0,90% following the approval of the 2020 financial statements which saw consolidated net revenues of 1,44 billion (-2,2% on 2019), against an ebitda of 569,3 million (+4,7, 410,4%) and an adjusted net profit of 7,3 million (+1,05%) and the distribution of a dividend of 5 per share (+2019% compared to 0,50) was approved, of which 2020 euro already paid in November XNUMX.
But the market spotlight is focused on Diasorin -1,28% to 153,90 euros, down after a promising start. The Saluggia-based company is now one of the leaders in diagnostics, an effervescent sector as can be deduced from the accounts of Roche which records a flattering +22% in this regard, while Diasorin, down by around 20% in the last six months. It is back to the levels of April 2020.
The diagnostics company will today illustrate to analysts the launch of the new LIAISON® LymeDetect® test in markets that accept the CE marking, further support for the early diagnosis of Lyme disease, a test available on the LIAISON XL and LIAISON XS platforms. The test identifies in 10 minutes the presence of specific IgG antibodies against the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein in capillary blood samples taken with finger lancing devices.
DiaSorin intends to enter the POC market starting from a program dedicated to Italy, which aims to reach pharmacies through agreements with distributors which allow for the capillary diffusion of the new offer which combines platform and new antibody test. LIAISON® IQ and LIAISON® Quick Detect COVID IgG Ab will also be made available in the United States following FDA approval. DiaSorin and Lumos Diagnostics are also working on the development of an antigen test for SARS-CoV-2 that will be launched in markets that accept CE marking and submitted to the FDA for emergency use by 2021.
This new solution, together with the tests already validated for Lyme disease in February it completes Diasorin's diagnostic offer for Lyme disease (potential market of 400-600 million dollars/year), strengthening visibility on Intermonte's forecast of turnover in 2021 (1.16 billion euros) based on a stabilization and gradual recovery of the ex-Covid business (about 0.7 billion at 2019 levels) and a still very significant contribution from the covid-19 tests (about 0.4 billion).
The prospects are indeed interesting. Currently commercially available diagnostic solutions are unable to detect the infection in its early stages, increasing the risk of chronic complications. Thanks to QuantiFeron technology, on the other hand, the Liaison LymeDetect test will make it possible to detect the infection early, thus widening the spaces for a segment with high growth potential, in line with the trend of growing decentralization of diagnostics and without questioning the high quality of laboratory tests and DiaSorin products (which will be connected in the cloud with the sampling point) in a context of proximity to the patient.
The launch of LIAISON® IQ also takes place well in advance of the timing indicated by management (within the first half of the year) during the recent call on Luminex and will be followed in the future (late 2022/early 2023) by a similar POC platform also for diagnostics molecular (LIAISON NES), thanks to the partnership signed a year ago with TTP.
In this context, the new IgG serological test it could represent an advanced solution not only to check the effectiveness of vaccines and the duration of immunization, but also to guarantee a more widespread coverage of the territory, of sub-populations of individuals and/or social contexts (companies, schools, etc.). From the new test we expect a significant escalation of volumes by exploiting the pharmacy channel and a reduced cannibalization with the tests carried out in a clinical setting on the Liaison XL platform. In our current estimates, we have so far assumed a limited upside from the sale of serological tests (about 50 million over 2021) which could be materially revised upwards, also on the basis of the good performance of the vaccination campaign in the individual countries.
