Positive start to the financial week on the Asian markets. All the lists rose, driven by the increase in credit disbursed in China, to the highs of 2010, which gives guarantees on the stability of the economy. Hong Kong rises +0,8% followed by Shanghai. Tokyo is also on positive ground +0,5%, despite the disappointing figure for GDP, which grew by only 0,3%. Analysts expect a new expansionary push from the government before April.
Gold's rally continues in Asia (1328 dollars an ounce, the highest since August) after closing Friday on Wall Street at 1.318. Since the beginning of 2014, the yellow metal has gained 10%. Oil is also on the rise, Wti just above 100 dollars.
With Wall Street closed for the President's Day holiday, the spotlights of world finance will be focused on Italy, in the hope of a quick solution to the political crisis. For once, there is no shortage of positive elements: from the return of GDP to positive ground after nine negative quarters to the benevolent opinion of Moody's, which raised the outlook on Italy's long-term sovereign rating to "stable" from "negative" , confirming the rating at Baa2 .
This was the first sign of stabilization of the Italian rating since June 2011, when the then Aa2 rating was placed under observation for a possible cut, then progressively cut starting from October of the same year until it reached the current level Baa2 in July 2012, with an overall deterioration of 6 steps.
Already on Friday Piazza Affari had closed the week with an increase of 3,7%, of which a +1,6% accrued in the last session thanks to an indisputable "Renzi effect" on the markets. Positive results also for BTPs: the 3,68-year yield fell to 4%, the spread with the Bund decreased by 200 basis points, returning below 199 (XNUMX).
G20 REVERSED: NOW EMERGING PEOPLE SUFFER
Playoffs at the weekend Sydney G20 which will bring together central bankers and finance ministers. For the first time since 2009, it is the emerging economies that are suffering, even if the recovery is struggling to pick up speed in the USA and, according to the Monetary Fund, Europe is facing the risk of deflation.
Meanwhile, the stock markets appear solid. On Wall Street, the three major indices closed the week up: the S&P500 gained around 2%, reaching less than a percentage point from its all-time highs. The recovery of oil stocks should be noted: Exxon gained 1,8% driven by the promotion of the broker Isi Group to Strong Buy. Occidental Petroleum +2,8% after completing the spin off of its California operations. Meanwhile, the good results boost Apache (+1,9%), a company that services the oil industry.
The European stock exchanges are also making progress, favored by the data confirming the progress of the economy in the euro area: GDP rose by 2013% in the fourth quarter of 0,3 compared to the third quarter, economists had expected +0,2%. During the week, the Parisian Cac increased by 2,7%, Frankfurt +3,8%.
Emerging markets are also stabilising, having recorded the best week among the last five. Among the currencies, the Hungarian forint achieved the best performance since 2006. The ruble also recovered in anticipation of monetary tightening in the face of inflationary pressures. On the equity markets, the MSCI Emerging Markets index rose by 1,2%. At the top is the Istanbul Stock Exchange +1,8%. The Brazilian Bovespa is also recovering despite the fact that the economy entered a recession a few months after the World Cup
BAD BANK PUSHES BANKS TO THE TOP
In the first five places of the Ftse/Mib there are four banks: Banco Popolare, Bper, Bpm and Ubi. The world of credit, starting from the Popular, confirms itself as the sector most sensitive to the mood of the markets and to the trend of the spread. At the top of the European banking sector index at the end of the week there is an Italian couple: Banco Popolare +17% (+4% on Friday after Bank of America raised its target price) and Bper +14%.
On Friday, Unicredit rose by 2,3%, while Intesa SanPaolo confirmed its place as the best blue chip in the prestigious Eurostoxx 50 index since the beginning of 2014. The advances on the corporate bad bank of Intesa and Unicredit and the report by Nomura who advises institutions to bet on "some underestimated banks" in Southern Europe, including Banco Popolare and Portuguese banks. According to Moody's, "the potential need for new capital for the banks will have a limited impact on public finances". Morgan Stanley goes so far as to foresee the direct purchase of bonds linked to corporate financing by the ECB.
Among the insurance companies, UnipolSai (+2,4%) stood out, while Generali gained 1,5%.
AUTO, FIAT WANTS ITS BANK
Fiat rose 2,8% on Friday, Pirelli +2,3% in the wake of the Eurostoxx automotive rally. The bull was unleashed by the results of Renault +13% (+59% operating income). Michelin (+8,9%) also showed strong growth after the accounts.
Fga, the joint venture between Fiat and Crédit Agricole set up in 2006, has applied for a banking license at the Bank of Italy. The goal is to be able to directly access the loans at subsidized rates from the ECB, which the competitors, Volkswagen in the lead, drew heavily on the occasion of the Ltro programme, which thus were able to practice very aggressive sales policies.
In the Exor stable, CNH excels (+5,2%), driven by the brilliant results of John Deere.
LUXOTTICA, THE GREAT REFUSAL OF WAR
Expected this morning for the rebound of Luxottica (-1,5%), among the few stocks that declined on Friday in the face of the prospect that the CEO Andrea Guerra was about to leave the company to become Minister of Economic Development in Matteo Renzi's government. But over the weekend, Guerra declined the invitation: once again Leonardo Del Vecchio's pressure had its best on the sirens of politics.
Lastly, the comeback of Tod's (+5,9%) is worth mentioning, among the best stocks of the week.
MEDIASET SHINES, TEAR OF PESENTI IN RCS
The victory in the mega auction on Champions League rights did good for Mediaset +7,4%. The market is now waiting for developments on the Spanish digital platform dossier and on the possible merger with Mediaset Premium, which could trigger an international alliance with Telefonica and one or more new partners among which the names of Al Jazeera and (less likely) the same stand out Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation.
In a more domestic key, the ongoing dispute between John Philip Elkann and Diego Della Valle has not caused damage to the RCS listing. Another effect could be Carlo Pesenti's exit from the board of directors. The industrialist from Bergamo limited himself to speaking, as is customary, of "growing commitments" in his group but, from what Il Fatto newspaper writes, a deeper dissent emerges towards the management of Pietro Scott Jovane, managing director, who has always attentive to the interests of the major shareholder, precisely Fiat.
The casus belli this time would have been "a strange operation carried out at the end of January by the management, apparently without keeping the board of directors informed". This is the purchase of a hotel booking site called Hotelyo, to be included in the courier.it portal, with the new name doveclub.it, associated with the tourism magazine Dove. Among the shareholders of the site there would be the financial company Lamse which belongs to the brothers Andrea and Anna Agnelli
CDP GIVES WINGS TO FINMECCANICA
The hypothesis of the transfer to Cassa Depositi e Prestiti of the two subsidiaries Ansaldo Sts and Ansaldo Breda gave Finmeccanica +5% wings. Thanks to this increase, Finmeccanica has become the best stock in the Eurostoxx 600 index since the beginning of 2014 with a gain of 31%. On the other hand, the subsidiary Ansaldo Sts withdrew, which lost 4%: with the operation, the hypothesis of a takeover vanishes.
TENARIS TIFA USA IN THE PIPE WAR
On the eve of tension for Tenaris, the multinational controlled by the Rocca family. Tomorrow the United States Department of Commerce should communicate its decision on a trade dispute that pits local pipe producers against some Asian companies that export to the United States at below cost prices (dumping). For years, a real war of pipes has been going on between local companies and foreign producers, especially Koreans.
A decision in favor of US producers will also have a positive effect for the Italian pipe multinational which boasts a strong manufacturing presence in the United States.
TWITTER, TEST AFTER THE LOCK UP
Starting Tuesday, after the President's Day holiday, Twitter employees will have the first opportunity to sell about 10 million shares of the social network made available by the expiry of the post-listing lock-up period. This is a modest amount, only 9,87 million titles out of the 545 million in circulation, but the test nonetheless has a strong psychological significance after the drop in quotations coinciding with the announcement of the quarterly which revealed a growth in more users low forecast.
