The turnaround in Italian economic policy is not enough to counter the risks of recession. This is what the Ref Ricerche study center claims in its latest economic forecast report.
“In fact, growth stopped starting from the second quarter of 2018 and, as far as we can gather from the data available up to the third quarter of 2019, little has changed – writes the research center – The slowdown has transversally affected the main components of the demand and all sectors, even if with greater intensity industry, on a par with what has been observed in other European countries”.
As regards policies in support of demand such as quota 100, the basic income and the so-called "flat tax" on the self-employed, "they do not seem to have changed the mood of the operators - continues Ref Ricerche - and could have limited effects on internal demand, also because the expansive effect of the announcements of higher public spending has so far been countered by the increase in the spread and the consequent worsening of financial conditions. Unfavorable evidence in this regard can be gathered from the ability to access credit declared by companies".
According to the research centre, “the turnaround of fiscal policy is important. The alternative was to find themselves embroiled in an excessive debt proceeding most likely accompanied by rating downgrades by the agencies. Certainly not a panacea for a country in recession”.
On the political level, "the political consequences of such a radical change in the Government's strategy are not few, also in the light of the fact that so far the policies followed have had a very high yield in terms of consensus - concludes Ref Ricerche - D' on the other hand, the prolonged phase of economic stagnation will hardly be overcome in the short term. Over the months, the urgency of fighting the crisis will become a priority, and a new phase of financial tensions would only worsen the prospects”.
