In the fourth quarter of 2023, i house prices have stabilized, but the question of sales remains weak because of the difficulties in finding mortgages. The inability to achieve a balance between supply and demand (both due to offers that are too low and requests that are too high) is the main cause of termination of sales assignments for more than half of agents. Real estate operators, however, look to the future with optimism, sensing signs of improvement in the market in the first months of 2024, both locally and nationally. Meanwhile, the rental market shows signs of tension with rising rents, supported by robust demand and a reduction in supply, often linked to the preference for short-term rentals. This is what emerges from "Economic survey on the housing market in Italy” relating to the fourth quarter of 2023 by Bank of Italy.
Real estate market: stable prices but weak demand
The Via Nazionale survey, conducted between January 8 and February 5, 2024 on 1.501 real estate agents, reflects this scenario. A general is noticed slowdown in price dynamics of properties in the fourth quarter of 2023, with stability as the prevailing opinion expressed by over two thirds of operators. Despite a slight recovery in demand compared to the previous quarter, around 40% of agents report a decrease in new sales assignments and potential buyers.
Mortgages in a nosedive, small houses at the top of sales
The main cause of termination of sales assignments was identified as difficulty in obtaining mortgages, reported by approximately one third of operators. Although this percentage decreased compared to the previous quarter, it still remains higher than the average for the 2014-2019 period. The percentage of mortgage-financed purchases fell to 56,9%, the lowest value since 2013. However, operators see positive signs for 2024.
The share of agencies that concluded at least one sale decreased compared to the same period of the previous year, still remaining at levels higher than the pre-pandemic average (87% compared to 72 in the 2012-2019 period and 81 in the third quarter) . A was also recorded increase of the cases in which the number of unfinished assignments increased compared to the previous quarter, although to a lesser extent than those that decreased.
81% of sales involved existing properties, with approximately 40% of homes sold di small size (less than 80 m60). Properties with lower energy classes (FG) accounted for almost 43% of total transactions and just under two-thirds of those in urban areas. On the contrary, in non-urban areas, a larger share of sales (XNUMX%) involved properties with higher energy classes (AE).
Tensions in the rental market: rising rents
even the rental market it's tense. In detail, real estate agents continue to observe a increase in fees, in line with the growing trend of the rental price index from 2022. The upward pressures seem to maintain a certain consistency, with 38,6% of agents expecting an increase in rents in the current quarter, compared to of a modest 4,3% which predicts a decrease. This is also influenced by the preference for short-term rentals, which reduces the supply available on the market.
Stable house prices
Bank of Italy, analyzing the fourth quarter of 2023, notes a weakening in the dynamics of housing prices. There stability was the most common opinion (expressed by 65% of agents), while those who reported an increase in prices decreased to 9%, a significant reduction compared to the highs recorded in the first quarter of 2022. discounts compared to the sellers' initial requests, they remained contained at 8,6%, 5 percentage points lower than the pre-Covid average, but in line with the values of the last quarters, while the average time between the assignment of the task and sales remained just above the minimum recorded since the start of recording in the first quarter of 2023 (6 months versus 5,5).
Below are the main results of the Via Nazionale survey:
Bank of Italy, cautious optimism for 2024
Le expectations for the first quarter of 2024 are less pessimistic, with two thirds of operators expecting a stabilization of the market. As regards the rental market, a further increase in rents is expected, influenced by the rising rental price index from 2022. This is also due to the preference for short-term rentals, which reduce the supply available on the market.
