TOKYO MARKS TIME, DOUBTS ABOUT CHINA. BUSINESS CENTER JUDGES RCS WITH FIAT REGISTRATION
Mixed start to the week in Asia. Tokyo is starting to close with a decrease of around 0,4%. Positive ground in Hong Kong + 1,5% which continues the rebound started last Friday. In Shanghai, interbank rates are returning to normal thanks to liquidity injections from the central bank.
However, the macro data show that the Japanese economy is growing strongly while other signs of the Chinese crisis are arriving. In Tokyo, the Tankan registering business optimism came out better than forecasts. Conversely, the Chinese PMI (purchases of real estate) slipped to 50,1 just above the recession level. Meanwhile, the race in real estate prices resumed in June, despite the efforts of the authorities, finally the speech of President Xi Jingping should be noted: "a good leader - he said - should not be judged by the growth of GDP at any cost".
US stocks closed lower on Friday evening: Dow Jones -0,76%, S&P -0,43%, Nasdaq +0,04%. The words of Jeremy Stein, one of the eight Fed governors who gave a conference in the week following the central bank meeting, helped accelerate the descent. This time the message was bearish: When the unemployment rate drops to 7% (perhaps as early as September), Stein said, the pace of QE purchases could slow.
Once again this week opens awaiting the messages from the central banks. The most important appointment is for Thursday 5 September, when the ECB summit will meet: the markets are expecting concrete anti-recession gestures from Mario Draghi. Today, meanwhile, a historic relay is taking place: Mervyn King leaves the top of the Bank of England, replaced by Mark Carney, former governor of the Bank of Canada, accompanied by very strong expectations.
PUBLISHING IN THE SPOTLIGHT, MEDIASET SUPERSTAR
Fiat -2,87% on Friday in the spotlight after the blitz on RCS Media Group. The game of the publishing group draws to a close. A shareholders' meeting requested by Diego Della Valle could be held tomorrow, adamant in his request for a new industrial plan and the cancellation of the shareholders' agreement. However, rumors are already circulating about the future of a group divided into three: a) Spain could be sold to the Murdoch group; b) Corriere della Sera could be split off from the rest, thus facilitating any alliance with La Stampa; c) the rest, from Gazzetta dello Sport to Rcs Libri.
Among the "hot" topics the march of Mediaset +2,7% on new highs since 2011. Credit Suisse raised the target price to 4,4 euros from 2,65 euros. Outperform recommendation.
FIAT ADVANCES IN DETROIT, ENI OPENS KASHAGAN
In the day Fiat will exercise the option for a share of Chrysler stock held by the Uaw union. It will be, for now, only a virtual purchase because the wait for the sentence of the Delaware court hangs on the price of the shares. But it is another sign of Sergio Marchionne's desire to end the financial integration between Turin and Detroit as soon as possible.
Waiting for confirmation, today, Italy Independent, the freshman of Lapo Elkann who made his debut on Friday on Aim with a 9% increase.
The performance of the banking sector should also be evaluated, suffering at the end of the week. Also as a result, more psychological than real, of the novelty of the EU agreement on the rules for the liquidation or restructuring of institutions. Banco Popolare lost 4,3%, Ubi -3,6% Mount Paschi -2,5% Understanding -2,1% Mediobanca -2,9% Unicredit -3,3%.
Pop Bank. Milan -2,5% recorded the resignation of former minister Giovanni Maria Flick, elected to the board of directors at last Saturday's meeting: the bank's transformation plan into a joint stock company ended up in a drawer.
In great evidence Finmeccanica, up 1,2% thanks to new orders in aerospace and the union agreement in Selex. The other big names were weak: Enel lost 2,1%, Telecom Italia -2,3%. Eni -0,3% on the eve of the start of production from Kashagan, the large field in Kazakhstan in which it holds a 16,8%.
MID-YEAR REPORT CARDS
1) WALL STREET IS GOOD, GOLD IS BAD
But at the end of the first half of the 2013 financial year, an initial balance sheet on market trends is a must. The American Stock Exchange lived up to hopes of recovery, thanks to the improvement in the economy: Dow Jones +14% as well as the Nasdaq. The S&P index rises by 13%, the best performance in the first six months since 1998. Even better, but with a thrilling volatility, Tokyo supported by the injections of Abenomics: +32%.
Long instead the list of losers:
On the list of losers is Shanghai -13%, ahead of Hong Kong -8%.
Capital returns to America, attracted by the recovery. As a consequence, emerging markets suffer (Morgan Stanley index down by 13%). The landslide in Brazil was even dramatic: -22%. Gold -30% and silver -40% are doing worse.
Stocks are better than bonds. The German ten-year bond falls by 3,5%. The US T bond of 5%. Institutional investors sold Tbonds for $32,4 billion last week. The BTP is doing much better, unchanged.
2) SAIPEM REJECTED IN MILAN, FONSAI SHINES
The same cannot be said for Piazza Affari. June was the worst month of 2013: the Milan Stock Exchange accumulated a loss of 11,4% in four weeks, all negative. In May the list had risen by 2,6%.
The negative performance caused the Italian square to slip to the bottom of the platoon. At the halfway point of the first six months, the Milanese index shows a loss of 6,3%, the worst Stock Exchange in Europe ahead of Madrid (-4,9%). Positive London +5,3%, Paris +2,6%, Frankfurt +4,5%. The Swiss stock market gained 12%.
Among the blue chips, the best stock was Mediaset which has gained since the beginning of the year: 86%, followed by Fondiaria-Sai +49%. The advance of continues in luxury Ferragamo (+43%) seems unstoppable in front of Fiat +42%. More detached Parmalat + 36%.
The black jersey is up to Saipem, overwhelmed by the second profit warning in four and a half months (-57%). Difficult semester even for bpm -32% and Banco Popolare -27%. They certainly don't even shine Enel -22% and Telecom Italy -21% grappling with the amount of debts.
