Oil moves towards the $50 target. Yesterday evening, crude oil closed sharply higher: +3,3% both in Wti quality (47,7 dollars a barrel) and with Brent (49,3 dollars), to new highs in the last six months. Same prices this morning in Asia. The Stock Exchanges took advantage of this, starting with Wall Street, in positive ground after three days of decline: the Dow Jones index closed up 1%, S&P 500 +0,98, again above the levels at the beginning of the year . NASDAQ +1,22%. Tokyo (+0,3%), Hong Kong (+0,3%) and Sydney (+0,6%) also performed well, driven by oil stocks.
GOLDMAN SACHS: DEMAND FOR CRUDE OIL AGAIN EXCEEDS SUPPLY
The problems of the extractive industry in Nigeria and Venezuela as well as the effects of the decline in investments in the USA contributed to favoring the rise in crude oil. But it was Goldman Sachs who decreed the trend reversal, until yesterday the most pessimistic broker on the prospects for crude oil. On the contrary, yesterday, the report by Damien Courvalin (guru of the US finance giant) rained down on the market, in which we read: "The rebalancing of the physical crude oil market has finally begun: after a first quarter in which supply exceeded demand by 1,4 million barrels per day, the situation reversed in May. At this point it is probable that a supply deficit will be recorded in the second quarter, in the wake of increased consumption in the West and cuts in production”.
The positive effect on Energy sector stocks was immediate on Wall Street (+1,6%). Chevron gained 1%, Halliburton +3,4%, Conoco Phillips +3,2%, Schlumberger +2,2%. Also in Milan, the rise in crude oil pushed Eni (+1,1%), Saipem (+1,7%) and Tenaris (+1,8%).
WARREN BUFFETT DISCOVERS TECH AND BETS A BILLION ON APPLE
Not just crude though. Once again, it was Warren Buffett who gave the charge to the US markets, thanks to the fresh attention of the Omaha essay for tech stocks. I do not pay for participation in the consortium for the purchase of Yahoo! (+2,3%), Buffett surprised the market by announcing the purchase of 9,81 million Apple shares (+3,7%) for just over one billion dollars. His Berkshire Harhaway took advantage of the sharp fall of the Apple, which fell by 19% after the decline in sales in the quarter, the first in 13 years.
FROM PUBLISHING TO PHARMA, THE AWAKENING OF THE US MARKET
Even in the USA, as in Milan, publishing has been the protagonist. Tribune Publishing, publisher of the Los Angeles Times and the Chicago Tribune, soars +23% after Gannett (+2,2%, USA Today) has raised its offer to 15 dollars per share.
Finally, fireworks in pharma. Pharmaceutical giant Pfizer (+0,6%) has launched a 5,2 billion dollar offer for Anacor Pharmaceuticals to add a gel to treat eczema to its portfolio. Following the announcement, Anacor shares jumped more than 57% to $98,95.
WEAK EUROPE, MILAN CLOSES IN EQUAL
Stop the Frankfurt Stock Exchange, Europe did not take full advantage of the renewed oil momentum yesterday. In addition, the animal spirits of the stock markets of the Old Continent were curbed by a report by Fitch which threatens medium-term rejection of the sovereign debts of European countries with close commercial relations with the United Kingdom in the event of Brexit.
The Paris Stock Exchange fell (-0,2%), as did that of Madrid (-0,9%). Paradoxically, London itself is on positive ground (+0,2%), thanks to the boost from commodities. In fact, among the sectors highlighted are Raw Materials (Stoxx +2,6%) and Oil (+1%). In Milan, the Ftse Mib index, after having reached a minimum of 17.534, closed in substantial parity with +0,04% at 17.737 points.
No reaction on the debt market to the stalemate on Italy's sovereign rating, after the confirmation by S&P of the BBB- rating with stable outlook. The Btp 10, yield 1,481% spread stopped at 136 points, took a breather in a rather quiet session with very low volumes.
The drop in yields on Irish bonds should be noted, following the promotion of the rating by Moody's to A3: the 0,778-year bond fell to XNUMX%, its lowest for over a month.
RCS (+16,5%) IS IN LINE WITH THE PRICE OFFERED BY INVESTINDUSTRIAL
The opening title naturally belongs to Rcs Media Group (+16,5%), once again the battlefield between Mediobanca (which for years has claimed that it wants to leave the group of shareholders of the publishing group) and Banca Intesa, close to Urbano Cairo.
Investindustrial by Andrea Bonomi has launched the takeover bid on the publishing house together with Mediobanca, Della Valle, UnipolSai and Pirelli, which together own 22,6% of the Corriere della Sera publisher. The consortium offered 0,7 euros in cash for each RCS security against the approximately 0,53 euros offered, card against card, by Cairo Communication. An investment of up to 282,7 million for 77,4% of the capital not owned, of which 55% will be held by the four historical shareholders of the group and 45% by Investindustrial. At this point, a relaunch by Cairo is difficult. In closing, the stock aligned itself with the level of the offer at 0,69 euro.
BPM-BANCO POPOLARE, THE PLAN CONVINCES THE MARKETS
The bank merger of the year passed the business plan exam. Banco Popolare +4,9% and Banca Pop. Milan +1,6% on the day of approval by the Boards of industrial plan of the merger project then presented to financial analysts. The 2016-2019 plan aims at sustainable profitability, a solid balance sheet with a Cet 1 ratio of 12,9% and bad debt coverage at 59%, value creation with a sustainable dividend policy and optimization of the distribution network with a cut in the number of branches from 2.417 to 2.082 in 2019, resulting in a redundancy of 1.800 workers.
The operation, which will be completed within the year, provides for the spin-off of Bpm spa. Finally, the new Bank has set itself the objective of a remunerative dividend policy, with an outgoing payment of 40% which, according to Castagna, "should not be occasional, but important and sustainable over time".
Banca Pop.Emilia (+1,7%) and Ubi (+1,5%) were also positive. Intesa loses 1,1%, Unicredit -0,6%. Among the insurance companies, Generali rises (+1,2%). In asset management, Anima is still down (-2,4%), its competitors Azimut (+1,8%) and Fineco (+3,6%) are on the rise.
TELECOM, ANALYSTS LIKE CATTANEO'S CUTS
On the Milanese price list Telecom Italia shines (+3%): the company has raised its cost-cutting target between now and 2018 from 600 million euros to 1,6 billion. The market appreciates management's commitment to improve profitability. CEO Flavio Cattaneo bought shares for one million euro. The company has tripled its plan to cut €1,6 billion by 2018. The cuts involve €800 million in operating costs and €800 million in capital expenditure. The previous plan called for savings of 600 million. A strengthening of the efficiency plans envisaged so far was also announced for Brazil for the next few months, while maintaining development in both 3G and 4G. The stock has lost 25% since the beginning of the year.
THUMP OF EXOR, FCA AND FERRARI DOWN
Sharp decline of Exor (-2,8%), cut by Kepler-Cheuvreux, which lowered the rating to Hold da Buy. Target price down to 32,5 euros from 34 euros. Fiat Chrysler drops by 1,6. Ferrari also down after yet another disappointment in Formula 1. StM +0,8%, Leonardo -0,1%. Solid rise by Buzzi (+2,34%).
IMA AND PRIMA INDUSTRIE IN FLIGHT AFTER THE CONTI
Some stars shine. Ima advances (+3,66%) on the wave of positive comments from post-quarterly analysts. Alberto Vacchi's company, beaten to the wire in the race for Confindustria, closed the first quarter with a pre-tax profit of 9 million euros, up on the 2 million recorded in the same period of 2015.
Strong purchases also on Prima Industrie (+6,89%): Banca Imi confirmed the buy rating and the target price of 17,2 euro after the publication of the accounts for the first three months of the year.
