The latest Cer report on banks reviews the critical points of a sector which in 2013 is struggling to recover. The current year is preparing to close with a negative net profit of around one billion euros, in 2014 the banking industry should return to producing profits of around 3,5 billion, destined to become around 8 in 2015 and 12 in 2016.
As for profitability, according to the findings of the Roman research centre, this year the Roe of Italian banks will record a contraction of 0,2 per cent, not so different from that of 2012 (0,7%) and from the average for the 2008 period -2012 (-0,5%). The reduction in operating costs, which should go from 1,3% to 1,1% in 2016, could help improve the income statements.
As a consequence of the low profitability and the deterioration in credit quality, a decrease in loans of around 5% is estimated in 2013, while in 2014 credit should flow back to businesses with low rates (+1,6%); larger increases are expected for 2015 and 2016.
Non-performing loans will also occur in loans which should decrease by just under one percentage point in the current year, to then increase by one percent in 2014 and increase in the following two years.
The economists of the Cer then observe that "the level of capitalization of the Italian banks, if on the one hand it appears adequate, even in an international comparison, on the other, however, it does not show signs of improvement".
The last point of the report is employment. The Cer underlines that the redundancy plans adopted by all the main banking institutions provide for an overall reduction of around 40 employees: at the end of 2015, the banking sector should have no more than 300 employees. In this regard, the thesis of the Cer is that the Italian banking sector is underestimated in terms of workforce with less than 10 employees per branch against 12 in Euroland and 18 in Germany. And there is a directly proportional relationship between the number of employees per branch and credit growth, especially in the case of corporate loans for which the bank-customer relationship is fundamental.
