Don't let the shareholder (and financial analyst) know that all is well, at least apparently. Above all, don't let people know how much the economy depends on Power. With the archiving decree issued by the GIP of Milan which effectively absolves the top management of Ei Towers for the hostile takeover bid launched against Rai Way in February 2015, the games could reopen for the age-old question of the "pole of the towers".
Let's review some steps. Rai decides to list the subsidiary Rai Way, owner of the transmission towers, in 2014 and makes approximately 36% of the share capital available to the market. This operation uncovers the pot of necessity, opportunity and convenience, for our country to be equipped with an efficient and rational distribution system for radio and television signals. Two large operators, Rai and the competitor Mediaset, configure a redundant system that generates waste and potential inefficiencies. The Government immediately entered the game and scored a decisive point: a pole of the towers in Italy can, indeed, should, be done on one condition: public control is guaranteed. This position has also been reaffirmed on FIRSTonLine with an interview with undersecretary Giacomelli.
Let's go back to the OPA. At the time, the Ei Towers initiative seemed to aim more at a mere operation of financial alchemy than at an industrial policy project. So much so that the shares of the two companies leapt to such an extent that they then had to raise the assessments of Consob and, subsequently, of the ordinary judiciary. The shares still retain the benefits of this operation: from the initial placement of Rai Way at 2.96 euros, the share has always enjoyed a highly positive performance, now standing almost permanently at over 4 euros. In May 2015, the operation was blocked, those interested withdrew to their positions and spoke sporadically of the core issue of the towers only when attentive analysts foresaw that the operation, sooner or later, would have to take place and bet on the share's rise. Which, punctually, happened once again just last Monday, when from the columns of the economic supplement de La Repubblica, we read that Mediobanca recommends "overweighting" the three main parties interested in the tower business: Inwitt, Ei Towers and Rai Way, proposing targets with significant increases. Thus it happens, by singular combination, that the following day, the Milan sentence on the possible reopening of the match against the Rai Way property is announced and the games apparently reopen.
What can happen now? First of all, once again, the central point of this operation does not emerge. It is a mere buy and sell financial activity where a subject buys all or part of another subject assuming or not taking control of it, or an industrial policy project where a third party is placed at the center (so-called public control) and the others participate in various capacities and with different weights (including subjects not directly and immediately linked to the broadcast)? It is evident that these are two completely different orientations and presuppose complex strategies and implementation times that are not short-lived. In the first case, everything could appear simple, and the competition moves to the market arena where whoever is stronger wins and then the governance composition will adjust.
In the second scenario, however, everything takes on a different dynamic. First of all, it is necessary a clear direction of economic policy on this ground which, at the moment, does not seem to have emerged clearly. Between the lines of official and unofficial declarations, no one has so far expressed an opinion on what model of "pole of the towers" we should talk about. Those directly involved, Barbieri for Ei Towers and Mancino, the new CEO of Rai Way, at best simply reiterate that "the pole of the towers could be done" and say nothing more.
Also in this context, where politics exercises, or should, power, it should be remembered that the scenarios that gave rise to the 2015 takeover bid have radically changed and, even more, are destined to change rapidly in the coming months. The balance between the main parties is more precarious than ever and no one is able to bet anything on the times and contents and direction of economic projects and, one can venture, least of all on the "pole of the towers". Not to mention the respective internal difficulties that each of the interested parties is facing, not to mention the Americans ready to disembark (giants of the caliber of American Towers or Crown Castle). Ei Towers, and its parent company Mediaset, have their own fish to fry with the French at the gates, while Rai Way struggles to assume an identity that can get it out of the shallows of a management that, at best, only looks at the efficiency and rationalization of the company. In fact, this is how some observers read the recent corporate reorganization where the Chief Technology Officer was established, with the responsibility assigned to Michele Frosi, and the confirmation of the position of Chief Business Development Officer, where Umberto Babuscio is the owner. The question on the presidency of Rai Way still remains unsolved, still, inexplicably, in the hands of a person employed by a company outside the Rai group.
Both companies next week, July 25 and 27, have BoDs scheduled for their half-yearly accounts and there should be no surprises. Stocks on the Stock Exchange will continue to fly, while it will take time for the "pole of the towers".. In the meantime, however, politics is once again talking: "It is advisable for the Government to include public state control of Rai Way in a primary regulation" declared the deputy PD Anzaldi. When and how is another matter.
