The crisis triggered by the coronavirus will collapse of the Italian gross domestic product by 6,5% in 2020. At the same time, the deficit/GDP ratio will rocket to 6,6%, bringing the debt up to 150%. Not only that: in the next two years – as happened after the 2008-2009 crisis – we will only be able to partially recover what we lost this year, with a growth 3,3% in 2021 and 1,2% in 2022. These are the estimates contained in the last one Forecast report by Prometeia, one of the three institutes that are part of the panel of the Parliamentary Budgetary Office.
In detail, Prometeia estimates for the first two quarters of 2020 a reduction in GDP of more than 10% compared to the pre-crisis situation, with very wide sectoral differences: from -10% of the manufacturing to -27% of services related to , up to -16% of services transportation and activities related toEntertainment.
There will be a rebound, but it will not be enough to compensate for the losses: in the base scenario that emerges from the analysis, Italy would find itself in 2022 with a GDP still below the 2019 level by more than 2 percentage points, with a sovereign debt nailed to 150%.
According to Prometeia, Italy is among the most exposed countries for structural reasons:
“In the context of the deepest global recession since the Second World War – reads the Report – Italy, with a services and tourism sector characterized by small and medium-sized enterprises, and a public sector with an already high debt, risks being among the more fragile".
In general, Prometeia believes that an extraordinary intervention is needed to be coordinated quickly at EU level. In this context, the forecasting center considers the launch of the Eurobonds (or Coronabonds), on which though the European Council is still deeply divided.
“No country will be able to get out of it alone – concludes Prometeia – Financing expenses with issues of European securities would make it possible to reduce the burden on national budgets and also take a step forward towards the creation of that continental safe asset which could favor the diversification of the risk of financial systems. Not proceeding down this path would risk weaken the European project, putting its future at risk".
