Global growth continues to rise, but there are still several risk factors to keep an eye on. To say it is the Forecast Report of March 2017 of Promethea, according to which the most recent economic data suggest an upward revision for global growth, which will lead to +3,3% in 2018 from +2,8% in 2016.
Il Relationship it also contains balance sheets, ten years after the outbreak of the crisis. At the end of 2016 the level of Italian GDP it was more than 7% lower than the highs reached at the beginning of 2008, while in Spain this gap has reduced to around 1%. In the Eurozone, Germany and France, GDP was instead higher by 2,4%, 7,8% and 4,5% respectively.
Italy
In 2016, Italian growth, if measured in per capita terms, was higher than that of the United States, France and Germany. Good news, even if due to a slight decline in the Italian population. In any case Prometeia has revised upwards the growth estimate for Italy both for 2017 (+0,9% from +0,7%) and for 2018 (+0,9% from +0,8%) .
There are conflicting signals from the Italian labor market: ten years after the crisis, the same number of people are employed, but for fewer hours, and the North-South gap has not narrowed. On the other hand, positive signals come from the supply of women's work and those over 55, from the stable demand for work and from the reorientation of employment towards services.
The ultra-expansive monetary policies of recent years are coming to an end, even if Prometeia confirms more cautious forecasts for the coming months. Only one rate hike of 25 basis points is expected for the Fed in 2017 and three hikes of 25 basis points in 2018. Even if the risk of deflation has moved away from Europe, the ECB after December 2017 will only gradually reduce the monthly purchase of securities, until ending the QE in May 2018.
international risk factors
However, there are several factors that put the global economy at risk. In 2018 the China it could once again become a source of volatility for the global economy. So far, the stability of the Chinese economy (2017 GDP +6,5%) reassures the international markets, but it is probably piloted by the authorities awaiting the Communist Party Congress in November, which will draw the map of power for the next five years.
The exuberance of the markets following the election of Trump is abating and the risks of disappointing expectations are starting to emerge. This has led Prometeia to revise its growth estimate downwards by two tenths United States for both 2017 and 2018 (+2,2% and +2,7% respectively).
