The system agreement to rake in 1,2 billion euros of private capital to unblock the Treasury's entry into the capital increase of Banca Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca and finally secure the Veneto banks is not there yet , but since yesterday the hope of finding a solution in the short term that avoids the default of the two institutions has clearly grown and the Stock Exchange has also taken note of it, which has returned to smiling.
Two important signals, which arrived in the morning, have brought some serenity back to the North East, even if the road remains uphill and the next few hours will be crucial. The first signal came from the Economy Minister, Pier Carlo Padoan, who, shortly before speaking at the Assonime meeting where he declared that it is not in his nature to "beat the tables" in Brussels, did issue an official press release to underline that "the solution (for the two Veneto banks) is now near and will not include any form of bail-in and in any case the senior bonds and deposits will be guaranteed".
Someone thought that Padoan's message was aimed at avoiding new bank runs and at reassuring the climate of the Popolare di Vicenza which was about to reunite the board of directors and where rumors had spread, then fortunately subsided, of resignations en bloc of the top management.
But then, confirming that of the Economy Minister, a second signal arrived directly from the European Commission, which, through its official spokesperson, reiterated that "constructive contacts are always underway to find a solution in line with the EU rules, without the bail-in of senior bondholders" and that, moreover, "as far as depositors are concerned, they will in any case be fully guaranteed".
The Stock Exchange immediately grasped the news, bank stocks started to rise and the price of senior bonds from Veneto banks also recovered ground and rose by about 10%. The climate has changed around Popolare di Vicenza and Veneto Banca but the problems still need to be resolved and there are mainly two of them: the repayment or otherwise of the Veneto Banca bonds which expire on 21 June and the recapitalization with private money.
Today the board of directors of Veneto Banca has to decide whether or not to repay the maturing bond which is worth around 150 million euro: if it does, it risks putting the bank's business continuity at risk because liquidity is reduced to a flicker, but if it doesn't, it must expect a shower of lawsuits, with civil and criminal risks for its administrators who therefore await instructions from the EU on what to do.
The second issue on the table is still that of the over 6 billion euro recapitalization of the two banks, for which – before the 5 billion intervention by the Treasury takes place – Brussels demands that private individuals do their part by contributing 1,25 billion . For now Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit have said they are willing to contribute to the increase but only if others do the same. But many banks niche, even if the greatest signs of openness have come from Banca Mediolanum, Unipol and Poste Italiane. Will it be enough? We will know in the next few hours but in the North East there is hope again.
