A future of moderate economic growth is looming in Italy, according to a long-term forecast report released today by the OECD, which looks from now to 2060. On average, our country's GDP should increase by 1,4% a year over the period 2011-2060, against the 2% annual growth expected for the average of the OECD area, 3,9% of non-OECD countries and plus 2,9% annual growth of the world, again over the same period under examination.
Yet Italy would do better than Germany, which according to estimates by the Parisian institution would only grow by 1,1% per year over the same period. Instead, the performance of France was higher, the study estimates an average annual expansion of 1,6%, as well as for Spain with a plus 1,7%.
However, looking at per capita GDP growth, the expected performance for Italy, +1,3%, is lower than the +1,5% per year for Germany, in the tables released by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.
The economic growth forecasts of the various countries are calculated by the OECD "on a purchasing power parity basis", ie to take account of local price differences and eliminate the effect of currency exchanges, therefore they do not correspond exactly to absolute GDP. The period in question is divided into two parts, from 2011 to 2030 and from 2030 to 2060. For the first sub-period for Italy, the OECD forecasts an average annual economic growth of 1,3%, while for 2030-2060 it estimates a strengthening of at most 1,5% per annum.
For the world economy, weighted on a purchasing power parity basis, the OECD expects average annual growth of 3,7% over the period 2011-2030, followed by a more limited 2,3% over 2030-2060.
