Forecasts for Italian GDP in 2022 continue to worsen. According to a report published on Tuesday by Istat, our country will grow by 2,8% this year (from +4,7% estimated in December) and by 1,9% in 2023. Both numbers are lower than those contained in the Economic and Financial Document which the government launched in April (+3,1% for 2022 and +2,4% for next year). Istat, on the other hand, is more optimistic than the European Commission, which in the spring forecast has forecast a +2,4% for the Italian GDP in 2022 (the estimate for 2023 is similar: +1,9%).
"High downside risks" for the Italian GDP 2022-2023
On the other hand, the same Statistical Institute warns that “the prospects for the coming months are characterized by high downside risks such as further increases in the price system, a decline in international trade and an increase in interest rates. The expectations of households and businesses could also suffer a significant deterioration”.
Italian GDP 2022: the main variables
Domestic and foreign demand
In 2022-2023, the increase in GDP will mainly be determined by the contribution of internal question net of inventories (respectively +3,2 and +1,9 percentage points), while the net foreign demand should provide a negative contribution in 2022 (-0,4 percentage points) and a zero contribution in 2023.
Investments and consumption
- investments, again according to Istat, will ensure decisive support for growth with a more sustained intensity in the current year (+8,8%) than in 2023 (+4,2%). THE consumption resident households and ISPs will instead show a more limited improvement (+2,3% and +1,6%).
Occupation
As for the evolution of employment, it will be in line with the improvement in economic activity, with a more pronounced increase in 2022 (+2,5%) compared to 2023 (+1,6%). The unemployment rate, on the other hand, is expected to drop significantly this year (8,4%) and, to a lesser extent, in 2023 (8,2%).
Inflation: "Sustained and widespread increases in the coming months"
Inflation growth should continue in the next few months and then ease off, even if with still uncertain timing and intensity. According to Istat estimates, in the first quarter of 2022, the tendential increase in the index for the entire community stood at 5,7%, to then mark an acceleration in April (+6%) and May (+ 6,9%). The evolution was characterized by the strongly positive contribution of the energy items (+42,2% in May from 45,2% in the first quarter) supported both by the component of the prices of regulated goods, characterized by the quarterly upward adjustments of the energy tariffs electricity and gas, and from that of non-regulated goods.
In May, the spread of price increases in various products continued. The prices of foodstuffs showed a further trend acceleration (+7,1%), as a synthesis of significant increases in both processed foodstuffs (+6,8%) and unprocessed foodstuffs (+7,9%). Service price lists have also shown an acceleration in recent months (+3,1% in May) driven by the prices of recreational, cultural and personal care services and transport.
The strengthening and diffusion of the phase of price growth was reflected in the measures of underlying inflation, both in the sense that excludes energy, food and tobacco (2,7% in May from 2,0% in April) and in that net of energy goods only (3,7% in May from 2,9% in April).
