The war blocks the Italian recovery, eliminating the additional growth expected for this year. Compared to three months ago, the estimate of the GDP trend in 2022 it almost halved, passing by 4 to 2,2%, a value equal to the so-called statistical drag end of 2021. In other words, if we close the year with a plus sign, we will only owe it to the legacy of the previous 12 months. To make the calculations are Prometeia and the study area of Legacoop, which on May 2 published the "MonitorPhase3”, an update on the prospects for the Italian economy after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The analysis shows that, in the most optimistic of scenarios, a spring quarter of stagnation could be followed by a second semester of recovery, but only in the presence of three factors capable of driving growth:
- the recovery not yet completed of a part of the services;
- the use of accumulated savings by families and businesses;
- the implementation of Pnrr.
Again, however,"2022 will not add growth to that already inherited from 2021 ”, underlines the study again.
GDP forecasts for the three-year period 2023-2025
But that's not all: according to Prometeia and Legacoop, energy prices are destined to remain high for a long time to come and this will slow down the recovery of the Italian economy in the next few years as well: "The levels we predicted before the war will not recover within the forecast horizon, thus configuring a scenario in which the level of activity will remain permanently lower".
In detail, the forecast on the trend of GDP in 2023 (processed by Prometeia on Istat data) was significantly reduced, passing from +2,9 to +2,5%. The estimate on growth in 2024, on the other hand, has undergone a filing equal to a single decimal, 2 to 1,9%. Finally, the data relating to the 2025 (+ 1,7 %).
However, it is clear that all these numbers continue to be weighed down by the uncertainty of the war, whose developments threaten to force further downward revisions in the next months.
The role of the Pnrr: from a driving force for growth to a defense tool
In this context, Prometeia and Lacoop underline the importance of the National Recovery and Resilience Plan: "If before the war the Pnrr was seen as a driving factor for growth - the survey points out - all the more reason now it represents a great opportunity to mitigate the negative repercussions of the conflict on the economy".
There are a total of 191,5 billion on the table, of which 45,9 already received from our country and another 31 arriving by the end of 2023. Overall, 134 investments are planned (52% destined for the construction sector) and 63 reform actions, with an average annual impact on GDP of +0,4%.
The risks that threaten the implementation of the Pnrr
However, there is the risk that the investments envisaged by the Pnrr will not follow the timing and quantity schedule planned by the government. In addition to the increase in raw material and energy prices, the study highlights three other factors that could hinder the implementation of the Plan:
- la weakness of administrations, which risks causing delays or incomplete work;
- the possible ones bottlenecks in the construction sector, which would slow down the construction of public works;
- a greater political uncertainty and less effort to use public funds.
