Prometeia revises its estimates on Italian growth downwards for the first quarter of 2015 (to +0,1% from +0,2%) and confirms those on GDP 2015 (+0,7%). The strengthening will take place in the two central quarters of the year (also thanks to Exhibition, which is worth 0,2% of GDP). Italian growth slightly revised upwards over the next two years: +1,6% in 2016 and +1,4% in 2017. This was communicated by a note from the economic research center of Bologna, specifying that for Italy the Juncker plan could be worth 0,1% of GDP in both 2016 and 2017. In 2018-2022moreover, our economy should return to regular growth: +1,2% compared to the EU average of 1,4%. Yesterday Morgan Stanley had spoken of a + 1,7% in 2016.
Again according to Prometeia, the rate of unemployment in 2015 it will be stable at 12,7%, to then drop below 11% at the end of 2017, while theoccupation will grow by 0,4%. The effects of the abolition of IRAP and of the tax relief on labor costs are also significant, with the tax wedge which will be reduced substantially.
As for the coverage of the relief provided for in the 2015 Stability Law, for Prometeia they will be only partial: the net increase in the deficit in 2015 will be approximately 10 billion (0,7% of GDP) compared to the 6 billion indicated. On the front of non-performing bank loans, the economic research center estimates a slowdown in the dynamics of non-performing loans starting from 2015 (from 17,8% at the end of 2014 to 5,2% in 2017). The Qe could free up more than 35 billion euro of liquidity in the banking system in 2015 and over 31 billion euro in the first nine months of 2016.
