Improves - and not just - the estimate of the European Commission on the trend of Italian GDP in 2020. In the new forecasts illustrated on Thursday in Brussels by Paolo Gentiloni, Commissioner for Economic Affairs, the Community Executive says that in the black year of Covid, the gross domestic product of our country has collapsed by8,8%. This is the worst figure since the second post-war period, but it is still less heavy by more than one percentage point compared to the -9,9% forecast by the Commission last November.
Furthermore, the latest survey is in line with the preliminary estimate by Istat, while it is better than the -9% expected in October by the Government in the update note of the Economic and Financial Document and the -9,2% inserted by the International Monetary Fund in the estimates published on 26 January.
The positive correction of the data relating to 2020 brings with it a worsening of the estimate of GDP for 2021 (if the collapse is less extensive than expected, the rebound is necessarily too). Now the Commission expects that this year the Italian economy will grow by 3,4%, given that it compares with the 4,1% also published by Brussels in November, with the +6% estimated by the government in October and with the +3% of the IMF.
The dynamics are reverse for next year. The technicians of the Community Executive predict that the growth of the Italian GDP in 2022 will settle at 3,5% (the previous estimate stopped at 2,5%, while that of the government goes up to 3,8%).
Secondo Gentiloni, in Italy, with the contribution of the Recovery Fund, “we are in any case faced with a very important growth potential and it is therefore essential that the government that will be formed, if it has the trust of Parliament, goes in the right direction. I trust that Mario Draghi's skills and experience can make a contribution to an efficient and pro-European government".
As for theinflation, according to Brussels economists – after -0,1% in 2020 – it will return to positive territory: +0,8% this year and +0,9% in 2022, respectively 0,6 and 0,4% compared to the average rate expected for the Eurozone (1,4% and 1,3%).
The European Commission has also improved its forecast of the collapse of Euro area GDP in 2020 (at minus -6,8%, from -7,8% in November), while a dampened the expectation on the recovery of 2021 (from +4,2 to +3,8%) and strengthened that on 2022 ( from +3 to +3,8%).
"In the short term - warns the EU - the prospects for the European economy seem weaker than expected" due to the "resurgence of infections" and the appearance "of new, more contagious variants of the virus". The new year should also start “on a weak basis. However - adds Brussels - the light at the end of the tunnel has now appeared. As vaccination campaigns gain momentum and pressure on health systems eases, containment measures should gradually ease."
