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GDP and weak recovery, the problem is European

BNL STUDY SERVICE, BNP PARIBAS GROUP – The results of the second quarter are a glass to be seen as half full – The exit from the recession consolidates for Italy but the pace of recovery is moderate – It is Europe as a whole that continues to grow too little: in September it will be necessary to work on internal growth, investments and competitiveness.

GDP and weak recovery, the problem is European

Italy's second quarter GDP results are a glass to be seen half full. In the space of four quarters, the annual growth of our economy went from minus half a percentage point to plus half a percentage point. The growth achieved in the first half of 2015 amounts to four tenths of a point, giving credibility to the objective of an increase of 0,7 per cent for the year.

It is the confirmation that the exit from the recession is consolidating, even if the pace of recovery is moderate. But the weakness of the recovery is not an Italian problem, but a European one. The numbers prove it.

With an increase of two tenths of a point on the previous quarter, Italy is exactly halfway between the four tenths of increase recorded in the second quarter by Germany and the zero growth at the economic level of France.

It is Europe as a whole that continues to grow too little. And the real development deficit is aggravated by inflation that remains too low and equal in July to just a tenth of the two percent target set by the ECB for the eurozone.

In September we will have to go back to working intensely on the European recovery site. That's what they indicate GDP numbers for the second quarter and they confirm the renewed signals of uncertainty coming from the rhythms of development and from the currency vicissitudes of the non-European world. More internal growth, more investments and more competitiveness appear to be the levers on which to act.

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