In 2016, Italy will grow at the same rate as Germany (+1,2%). This is what we read in the latest forecast report by Prometeia, in which the consultancy firm also revised upwards the GDP for the whole of 2015 (to +0,8%), thanks to a more lively domestic demand than expected , which compensates for the conspicuous drop in emerging markets.
Until 2018 Prometeia expects GDP to grow between 1 and 1,5%, a rate not seen since the 25s. The current recovery phase is one of the richest in terms of jobs created in the last XNUMX years.
Immigration will weigh on public finances in the short term, but in the long term the integration and absorption of migrants could increase Europe's potential growth, writes Prometeia again.
As for savings, the report shows that for the first time in history the share of mutual funds in household portfolios is higher than bonds (11,3% vs 10,3%).
Finally, Prometeia argues that Germany will suffer a limited impact from the Volkswagen scandal, despite the negative confidence effect: the consultancy firm estimates a drop in consumption of 0,3% for the end of 2015 and a negative contribution to 2016 GDP of -0,15, XNUMX%.
