The markets are betting on an imminent request for aid next weekend which will then be formalized at Ecofin on Monday. Rajoy today receives the President of the Republic Giorgio Napolitano in Madrid but continues to send conflicting signals and does not lift his reservations and there are those who think that he will even wait for the elections in Catalonia at the end of November. On the other hand, Madrid has made it known that "I am not aware of any vetoes from Germany" and, after the 2013 financial penalty and the results of the bank stress tests, there is expectation on the markets for the request for the anti-spread shield ( which will also activate the bazooka of the ECB).
However, among investors, who are wondering about the effects of the Spanish request for aid on Italy in particular, a climate of greater confidence and relaxation seems to prevail today. Milan leads the rises of European markets to +1,01% and the Btp-bund spread is down below 360 basis points with the yield falling below 5% in the morning. In positive territory but with less momentum London +0,25% Paris +0,35% and Frankfurt +0,52%. In its autumn report presented this morning in Berlin, the German institute Diw expects German GDP to grow by 0,9%, while in 2013 a more robust recovery will cause the value of goods and services produced in Germany to rise by 1,6. XNUMX%.
They helped to relax the moods also Bernanke's words yesterday who promised low rates even in the recovery phase and the Ism Usa index. Now let's look at the release of the New York ISM index in September. But there are those who are already pointing the finger at inflation which, if it is not a problem in the short term, could become one in a couple of years, also in light of the Fed's quantitative easing moves. Gold continues its climb and from the beginning year gained more than 13%. Today it is slightly back to 1.781 dollars an ounce. Inflation in the OECD area, the organization announced today, rose by 2%, for the first time in a year, against 1,9% in July as a result of opposite trends in energy prices ( 3,5% against 0,7% in July) and those of food (from 2,3% to 2,1%). Excluding these two items, inflation fell to 1,6%, against 1,8% in July. Looking at the main countries, inflation increased in Germany (2,1% from 1,7%), United States (1,7% from 1,4%) and, more moderately, in France (2,1% from 1,9%) and Italy (3,2% from 3,1%). But for us the emergency is growth. According to Enzo Moavero, the Minister of Community Policies, "in 2013 we will already see important signs of recovery and that 2014 and 2015 will be years of economic recovery". On the contrary, the president of Confindustria, Giorgio Squinzi, would sign a "real recovery" in 2015.
In Piazza Affari Finmeccanica stands out +3,86% in the wake of the expectations of the sale of Ansaldo Energia, where the confrontation between Siemens and the Italian consortium is coming to life. The banks are positive. Mediolanum +3,45% and Bper +2,32%. Unicredit +1,31%, Intesa +1,70% and Mps +1,29%. Mediobanca +1,35% while the transfer of the package to Fondiaria Sai has begun.
A2A also rises again +3,44% on the hypothesis of exit from the telecommunications sector with the exercise of the put (against F2i) on 25,7% of Metroweb and with the sale of the majority of Brescia-based Selene. Thanks to these two transactions, A2A could improve its net financial position. Inleggero rosso Saipem -0,74%, Azimut -0,11%. Eni around parity -0,06%
