SUPER BUSINESS PLACE, THANKS TO BANKS AND INDUSTRIAL COMPANIES
RECORD DOLLAR, THE ECONOMY STARTS AGAIN IN CHINA
Well begun, goes the well-known saying, is half done. Let's hope that, for once, the proverb works. It is difficult to find a better combination of factors than the one that accompanied the "premiere" of the Italian Stock Exchange: excellent macroeconomic data (see the best manufacturing PMI indices since 2010); convincing sector signals (ie good car sales data in Europe), ongoing corporate battles (Mediaset). And the banking sector, thanks to the pyrotechnic debut of Banco Bpm, from ballast to bull's propellant. In short, it would be difficult to do better, even if the rally took place on a day of modest trading because for the most important stock exchanges (Tokyo, London and Wall Street) 2017 only begins this morning. And a crucial appointment is already looming, the one with the US labor data arriving on Friday: a very positive data will push the Fed to bring forward the rate increase, with immediate repercussions on the dollar and, consequently, on the euro, yen and yuan .
THE YEAR OF THE ROOSTER STARTS WELL
Even in Asia, 2017, the Year of the Rooster for the Chinese calendar, opened its doors with a loud and ringing crowing.
– Chinese stock markets are advancing on the wave of strong recovery in economic indices. the PMI Caixin index on the expectations of purchasing managers of manufacturing companies rose to 51,9 in December from 50,9 in November, the consensus was at 50,9.
– Shanghai +0,8% wants to cancel the worst Stock Exchange label (-11,3%, worse than Piazza Affari) conquered in 2016.
– Big maneuvers on the currency market. The dollar, recovering after the sales of the post-Christmas week, was traded at the official Chinese fixing at 6,9498, one step away from the 7 yuan threshold. The US currency rose against both the yen (117,38) and the euro (1,0472).
– Tokyo is still closed, the best stock exchange is Sydney +1,2%, ahead of Hong Kong +0,5%). South Korea's Kospi stock index is up 0,8%. Mumbai climbs 0,3%.
– Futures anticipate a positive opening on Wall Street: S&P +0,3%.
– Fourth day of up, out of five, for gold, traded at 1.158 dollars an ounce (+1%).
THE OIL RISES. IRAN PUSHES ENI AND SAIPEM
Spotlights on the oil market, for the first trades after the entry into force of the agreement on production cuts. Brent rose to 57,13 dollars a barrel (+0,55%), Wti to 54,04 (+0,6%). At Piazza Affari, energy stocks inaugurated the year on the rise: Eni +1,1%, Tenaris +1,8%, Saipem +4,5%, driven by the expectation of new orders arriving from Tehran. In fact, yesterday the Iranian energy ministry published the list of 29 oil companies that will battle to win contracts in the sector through the new Iranian Petroleum Contracts. Among the names on the list, there is also ENI. The hope of new contracts also gave wings to Trevi +6,22% and Maire Tecnimont +5,27%.
SUPERSTAR BUSINESS PLACE, RECORD ORDERS FOR THE INDUSTRY
In the Old Continent, lacking the thrust of Wall Street and London, Piazza Affari shone. The Ftse Mib index rose by 1,73% to 19.566 points, a new high since mid-January 2016. The other markets were positive, but with less boost: Frankfurt (+0,89%) and Madrid (+0,68 %). Shutters down for London, which remained closed like Wall Street for the holidays.
– The PMI indices, which measure manufacturing activity, have brought good humor to the markets. The December data, based on business orders, signal robust growth in demand, which jumped in Italy to 53,2 points (one more than in November), the highest since June. A result well above 50, the bar that separates economic stagnation from expansion, in line with France (53,3) but which brings Italy closer to Germany (55,6) and Spain (55,3 ,XNUMX), the brightest in the Eurozone.
THE SPREAD ON THE BUND AND THE BONOS GOES DOWN
– Positive first session of the year for the Italian bond market. The Italian 1,75-year rate fell to around 1,83% from 2016% at the end of XNUMX, reaching its lowest level since the beginning of November.
– The yield differential with the Bund is also down, narrowing to 156 basis points from 163 basis points at the end of 2016.
– The 10-year risk premium on the Spanish paper is marginally down, going to 43 basis points from 45 points on 30 December, far from the peak since the beginning of 2012 — at 55 basis points — reached just over a month ago, close of the constitutional referendum.
– On Thursday 5 January, Madrid will offer up to 4,75 billion medium-long term paper, inaugurating the 2017 placement cycle. On the same day, Paris will issue up to 9,5 billion euros in OAT.
ACCELERATE THE CAR: FCA +3,35% PARADE IN LAS VEGAS
Data on the Italian car market arrived in the evening to complete the pink picture of the economic situation. The recovery of the car market continued in December, both in Italy and in the rest of Europe (Spain +10,5%, France +5,1% again above 2 million vehicles delivered). In 2016, sales in the Bel Paese exceeded 1,8 million (+15,8% to 1.824.968 units) thanks also to a good December (+13,1% with one working day less). A recovery from which Fiat Chrysler benefited above all (+18,4% to 528.189 vehicles with a share at the highest since 2012 at 28,94%) with six cars in the top ten of the most purchased cars.
FCA has also accelerated on the price list + 3,35%: Tonight the group will make its debut at the Consumer Show in Las Vegas where it will present the next generation Uconnect infotainment system running on the Android platform developed together with Google. A press conference is also scheduled to take stock of the self-driving car, the Pacifica minivan, which will soon enrich the car sharing fleet of Way mo, the Alphabet company that deals with mobility.
In the automotive sector, Brembo's brilliant return to the Ftse Mib index: +4,3%, new all-time high. Piaggio also did well +2,2% awaiting the final data on 2016 sales in the two-wheeler sector.
BANCO BPM, DEBUT WITH A BANG. BRILLIANT UBI
Finally a day of glory also for the banking sector, fresh from the horrible year: the Italian sector index closed up by 2,25%.
The bubbly debut of Banco Bpm gave strength to the rally: the title of the third largest Italian banking group on its first day of trading closed up by almost 9% at 2,492 euros. The merger provides for the conversion of Banco Popolare shares with a 1-to-1 swap, while 6.386 shares of B. Pop will be needed. Milan for 1 share of the new Banco Bpm. The opinion of Equita Sim was very positive, underlining "the synergistic potential of the transaction", capable of exceeding the official targets which envisage a 9% reduction in combined costs in 2019, i.e. lower charges of 320 million euro "also because In our opinion, the transformation into a joint-stock company will put pressure on the management to achieve the objectives of the plan".
Ubi Banca was also brilliant +4,9% even if the purchase of the three good banks, already expected for the end of the year just ended, has been postponed again. The Bank of Italy, through the Resolution Fund and in agreement with the EU Commission, has decided to probe the subjects who last summer had made binding offers for the four bridge banks and which had been rejected.
The rest of the sector is also on positive ground: Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna +4,1%, Unicredit +2,5% and Intesa +0,9%.
Positive insurance companies, Generali +1,6%, Unipol Sai +2% and asset management groups: Banca Mediolanum +1,5%, FinecoBank +3%.
MONDADORI: +25% IN ONE WEEK
There are numerous themes to mention in the rest of the catalogue:
– Always live Mediaset +1% and Telecom Italia +2,5%.
– Upside session also for Atlantia +2,25% thanks to the update of the motorway tolls. For the Benetton company, news also comes from the airports, with Roma Capitale launching a public auction on 30 December for the sale of the entire stake held in the capital of Aeroporti di Roma, equal to 1,329%.
– More purchases on Parmalat +1,22% at 2,998 euros, well above the price of the tender offer announced by Lactalis, equal to 2,8 euros.
– Mondadori is up 9,31%, taking last week's gains over 25%
