PIAZZA AFFARI ARRIVES TIRED AT THE TURN OF THE MARKET
TOKYO DOWN, THE RACE FOR BONDS CONTINUES
Tokyo -0,2% opens slightly lower, conditioned by the strength of the yen against the dollar. The other Asian indexes rose, without great enthusiasm: Shanghai +0,5%, Seoul +0,4%.
The script intended for the last session of June it doesn't change: markets supported by the belief that rates will remain low for quite a while, but without great ideas.
While waiting capitals choose debt securities, whose yields continue to fall: this morning the US T bond trades at 2,531%, 9 points below Friday; the German 1,26-year bond is at 8%, 30 points less, one step away from the lows. The ten-year American yields 10 cents less than the Italian BTPs, XNUMX less than the Spanish Bonos.
Meanwhile, they slow down crude oil prices: Brent is trading at $113 a barrel this morning; gold stopped at 1,310 dollars an ounce.
It is in this framework that the financial markets are today carrying out their mid-year turning point, after an extraordinary, perhaps unrepeatable six-month period, according to the pessimists.
Caution is advised by the signs of fatigue that are emerging in Europe: the Stoxx index closed down -1,7% for the first time in ten weeks, reducing the gains of the first six months to 4% All stock markets down from the Old Continent: Paris -1,8%, Frankfurt -1,7%, London -1%. Today, however, Wall Street can celebrate yet another record: 16 consecutive quarters of increases unlike the Standard & Poor's index since 1998. Better than the US Stock Exchange (S&P and Nasdaq +4,7%) has done since April Asia Pacific index +5,4%, while the MSCI Global, made up of a basket of securities from all listings, marks +4,1%.
The attention of the markets is concentrated on two appointments on Thursday: the monthly meeting of the ECB, the first after the expansive measures promoted by Mario Draghi and the US data on employment in the private sector.
TOMORROW THE NEW RATES ON CAPITAL GAIN WILL START
Bringing up the rear was the Milan Stock Exchange which closed on Friday for the sixth consecutive session down (Ftse Mib index down by 0,3%). The balance for the week is a sharp drop of 3% which reduces the gain from the beginning of the year to +12,4%, the best result among OECD countries.
Since the beginning of the year, the capitalization of the markets of the "periphery of Europe" (Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece) has risen by 150 billion.
The trend was influenced by the introduction tomorrow of the new rates on interest and capital gains. Many investors wanted to close deals with the old tax of 20% instead of 26%. For latecomers, today is the last day to take advantage of the old legislation: a circular from the Revenue Agency specified that the 20% rate applies for contracts stipulated by midnight today, regardless of the payment date.
THE BTP/BUND SPREAD TRAVELS TOWARDS 100 BP
3% less than the Greek bond, 20 cents less than the Italian BTPs, 10 less than the Spanish Bonos.
Il Italian treasure successfully closed the month-end auctions: 4 billion euro of 5-year BTPs were placed at a yield of 1,35% from the previous 1,62%. and 2,5 billion euros of 2024 BTPs were also issued with a yield of 2,81%, down from 3,01% in the previous ten-year auction. In the last 30 days, thanks to the turnaround by the ECB, the yield on ten-year bonds has fallen by 18% and that on five-year bonds by 30%.
The average cost of funding for government securities fell to just over 1,5% compared to 2,2% last year”.
On the secondary, the yield on the 10-year BTP is 2,83% (-1 basis point), spread at 156.
According to the experts, the rally is destined to last: Rbs expects the reduction of the spread up to the threshold of 100 basis points.
THE SUPERFINE ARRIVES AT BNP PARIBAS
A $9 billion fine plus temporary suspension from dollar operations. This is the sentence, the highest ever inflicted on a foreign institution in the US, which Bno Paribas contracted with the US authorities for having acted as agent bank for various states under embargo, starting with Sudan and Iran.
The official announcement will be made at a Justice Department press conference. The confirmation of the CEO Jean-Laurent Bonnafe has already arrived from Paris: “We will suffer a heavy sentence. But I can say that we hope to recover: our future plans do not change ”.
The fine is not far from the profits of the last financial year of Bnp (8,2 billion euros) but it is much lower than the penalty, 16 billion dollars, aired for the infractions of the institute which will not, however, lose the banking license of the State of New York.
MEDIASET, FRIDAY THE TIME X FOR SPAIN
Closing the last week on a high note (+4,03% on Friday) Mediaset tackles the Spanish campaign. On Friday it will be known whether or not the Biscione company will accept the offer made by Telefonica for 22% of Digital Plus, equal to 355 million in all. The match is hand in glove with the evolution of the pay TV project (with the creation of a newco in which to group the Italian and Spanish businesses) and with the search for a partner for Premium (or the newco), another hot dossier after the interest expressed by Sheikh Ali Bin Thamer al Thani, owner of Al Jazeera.
ENEL, SPIN-OFF TESTS IN SPAIN
In the spotlight the plans of CEO Francesco Starace who, within ten days, should announce the plan to reduce the group's debts. UBS has published a report on the subject which envisages two operations: the spin-off of Enersis from Endesa to bring the South American subsidiaries directly under the control of the parent company. Subsequently the partial reduction of the presence of the Italian group in the Iberian holding by increasing the free float from the current 8% to 25%.
All of these operations to be carried out by 2015 could free up resources for 10 billion in five years. In this scenario, EBITDA could drop in 2015/16, however, in the face of a constantly growing profit of around 3,5 billion. The debt should settle around 35 billion.
THE “NEW” MPS MAKES DEBUT TODAY, THE PALIO OF AFTER MANSI IS STARTING
Start your new life today Monte Paschi Bank after the successful outcome of the 5 billion euro capital increase of Banca Mps subscribed at 99,85% for an amount of over 4,99 billion which "will allow us – said the CEO Fabrizio Viola – to give back to the Italian government about 3,5 .XNUMX billion” of Monti bonds.
The intervention of the banks of the guarantee consortium led by Switzerland Ubs it should have been very limited, thanks to the strong purchases made by foreign and above all American investment funds. The first new shareholder to come out on the open was the American manager T. Rowe Price, with a stake of 2,11%, while the name of Beauport Financial, a very active fund in the management of non-performing loans, is circulating for the other possible investors loan and equity.
Now the game moves on the balance of MPS Foundation, after the resignation of Antonella Mansi just nine months after her arrival at Palazzo Sansedoni. The appointment is set for today, but it seems that skepticism on the subject is so high that the Foundation has already scheduled a new meeting for July 7 and expected further postponements. For now there would be no names on the table and the game still seems to be played. Antonella Mansi, for her part, has already said she is willing to stay at Palazzo Sansedoni for the entire month of July, but not beyond.
FINAL SPRINT FOR CARIGE. CHECK MALACALZA
From today to Friday there will be the possibility to exercise the rights relating to the capital increase for 800 million Banca Carige. From 7 July, any unopted items will be auctioned off. For now, the Foundation, with a strong 19%, the French group Bpce and Beniamino Gavio, Coop Liguria and the Cariverona and Carilucca Foundations have already subscribed for the relevant share.
New shareholders could appear in the rights auction, as the vice president Alessandro Repetto has suggested. Among the eligible candidates are the Garrone family, Andrea Bonomi and, above all, the Malacalza family who could already own the 4% subscribed by UBS.
ITALCEMENTI TOWARDS THE MERGER WITH CIMENTS
Also Italcementi -0,43% closed the 500 million euro capital increase with subscriptions equal to 99,42% of the new shares issued. The rights relating to the unsubscribed portion, equal to 0,58% of the transaction, will be offered on the stock exchange in the period between 2nd and 8th July and may be used for the subscription of the shares on the basis of an option ratio of 3 shares for every 7 unexercised rights. In the meantime, the capital increase of Ciments Français will close on Thursday: the takeover bid price at 79,5 euros per share will entail an outlay of 459 million for the Bergamo-based company, financed by the operation that has just been completed.
If at the end of the offer Italcementi holds more than 95% of the share capital and voting rights of Ciments Francais, within three months of the closing of the offer the squeeze-out procedure of the remaining shares will be started, which gives the offeror the right to purchase the securities at the unit price of 79,5 euro, equal to the offering price.
TODAY THE INCREASE OF ROME IS UNDERWAY
Two new capital increases kick off today.
La Rome as will offer a maximum of 265.046.592 ordinary shares in the ratio of 2 new shares for each share held, at a unit price of 0,377 euro. The operation, which will end on 18 July (the rights relating to the capital increase will be listed until 11 July) will allow the club to collect 100 million.
Get started today the capital increase of Class Editori. The publishing company will offer a maximum of 177.611.564 ordinary shares in the ratio of 169 new titles for every 100 shares held, at a unit price of €0,224. The operation will end on July 18, while the rights relating to the capital increase will be listed until July 11. On 11 June, the shareholders Euroclass Multimedia Holding Sa and Paolo Panerai communicated their irrevocable and unconditional commitment to subscribe their share of the Capital Increase, equal to 46,061% and 12,4% respectively and also any rights which remained unexercised at the conclusion of the Stock Exchange Offer up to a total maximum value of 35 million.
The calendar of the financial day also includes: board meeting and shareholders' meeting for Cir and Cofide.
The assemblies of Cogeme SET, Crespi , Eems, Montefibre , Methorios and of PMS Group (approval of the budget and amendment of the statute).
IPO/1 – FINCANTIERI DEBUT AFTER THE OFFER HALVED
The navigation in Piazza Affari will start on Thursday Fincantieri. In truth, the response from institutional investors was less than expected, which forced the market offer to be halved: only 351 million against the 703,9 million initially envisaged at a unit price of 0,78 euro, at the minimum value of the fork. The flop is linked to the lack of response from institutions (200 million) while retail has absorbed about 30% of the offer. The capitalization will be 1,320 billion.
IPO /2 – FINECO ARRIVES, AT THE LOWEST PRICE
The tired phase for IPOs in Europe it also weighed on Fineco which will debut on Wednesday in Piazza Affari after the placement at 3,7 euros per share, in the low range of the price range indicated between 3,5 and 4,4 euros. The capitalisation, calculated on the basis of the offer price – will be equal to 2.243 million.
The positive impact on the group's tier 1 common equity Unicredit -0,16%, calculated on the basis of fully implemented Basel 3 is estimated at around 14 basis points (16 in the event of full exercise of the greenshoe option). The bank bears the risk of harsher European sanctions against Russia which could affect the bank's activities according to reports from director Gianni Franco Papa to the German newspaper Handelsblatt.
