OIL AND GDP, THE "P EFFECT" WEIGHTS ON THE MARKETS
FROM THE MSCI BASKET OUTSIDE AUTOGRILL AND MEDIASET
The recession is consolidating in Europe. From the Middle East come sinister echoes of artillery shelling. The tug of war in the USA on tax cliff and the interminable Greek tragedy are not yet at the epilogue. Given the context, the moderate pessimism of the financial markets is not surprising.
In Milan, the FtseMib index fell by 0,25% to 15215, Paris -0,17%, London -0,34%, Frankfurt -0,5%.
In the third quarter of 2012, the GDP of the euro area fell by 0,1% compared to the previous quarter and by 0,6% compared to the third quarter of 2011. Both figures are in line with economists' forecasts.
The Italian GDP was better than expected, with a drop of 0,2% on the previous quarter (-0,5% was expected) and a drop of 2,4% on the previous year (estimated -2,9%).
The euro is trading at 1,275 against the dollar, up slightly from 1,273 at last night's close.
The 10-year BTP shows a slight improvement with the yield falling to 4,91% and the spread at 358.
Oil, which moved up 1% overnight, consolidates its gains this morning: Brent is trading at 109,6 dollars a barrel (unchanged), Wti at 86,3 dollars (+0,1%) .
I fear a revision of the MSCI global basket, with some relegations in sight for Made in Italy. Between these Rest -2,5%, destined to exit the index at the end of the month together with Mediaset -0,6%. Luxottica +0,1% could on the contrary gain weight in the index which it will not enter, as some operators had hoped, Campari – 2,3%:.
Shines Diasorin , up 2,06% thanks to the promotion of Morgan Stanley (review Overweight da equal weight) , and by Berenberg (target price from 28 to 30 euros, judgment buy).
Contrasted trend for banks: Unicredit 0,7% salt, Understanding drops by 1,3%. Falls Banco Popular -0,6% MontePaschi advances by 0,2%.
Even among industrial stocks, the landscape is mixed: Fiat +1,67% and Impregile it +1,9%. They go down Finmeccanica -0,7% and StM -1,9%.
The rise in crude oil has no positive effect on sector stocks: Eni -0,3% down 0,3%, Saipem -2,2% Tenaris -1,3%. Also Saras loses 2,5% after being downgraded to sell from Société Générale.
Enel drops by 0,3%, Atlantia-1,1%.
Finally correct Telecom Italy -0,4% after the Sawiris blaze.
