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Oil at the top: it's the second best semester of the century

In the first six months of 2021, oil has risen by 45% - Futures herald a good start on the stock exchanges - 6-month BOT auction awaited - Concern over the Delta variant in Asia

Oil at the top: it's the second best semester of the century

A flare-up of the Delta variant of Covid-19 has advised the authorities to impose a new lockdown in the Sydney area. The risk of contagion is felt again in the Asia Pacific area less than a month from the Tokyo Olympics and on the eve of the Chinese celebrations for the centenary of the Communist Party: new restrictions in Malaysia (-1% Kuala Lumpur) and in Indonesia, but the Phuket tourist center in Thailand reopens without restrictions. Meanwhile, despite the prudence, the lists remain close to the highs, ready to celebrate the very positive results of the first half-year.

DIDI, TODAY THE IPO: CAPITALIZATION TOWARDS 67 BILLION

A sign of confidence should arrive in the afternoon, when the offer of the shares of the Chinese Didi, Uber's competitor, will close on Wall Street: forecasts speak of a collection of 4 billion dollars, for a capitalization of 67 billion.

SALE SHANGHAI: PIG MANUFACTURERS SUMMER

The Chinese indexes (CIS 300 +0,2%) were on positive ground this morning, even if industrial profits suffered a further decline in May, thanks to the strong increase in raw materials. Data on the Dragon's manufacturing activity will be released on Wednesday: the PMI index should drop to 50,7 points from 51. After a long rally, the yuan is starting to end June with a decline.

The agri-food sector is giving wings to the index, supported by the expectation of an increase in consumption (and prices) of pork for the next holiday: the giant Muyuan rises by 7% (after +5% on Friday) .

Hong Kong's financial market is at a standstill due to a hurricane warning issued by local authorities. Negotiations should restart shortly.

TOKYO, 600 COMPANY SHAREHOLDERS' MEETING TOMORROW. GDP +3,9%

The Japanese Stock Exchange flat on the eve of the meeting day. Tomorrow over 600 listed companies will hold the balance sheet meeting. These include Nintendo, Sharp and Takeda pharma. Remote participation is expected this year.

The Bank of Japan revised Japanese GDP growth for the quarter to an annualized rate of 3,9% from a preliminary estimate of 5,1%. The data on industrial production in May is expected on Tuesday.

Spotlight on Panasonic: the group has sold its entire stake in Tesla, to which it has always supplied batteries for 3,6 billion dollars. The operation will be used to finance acquisitions.

The Asia Pacific index is down slightly (-0,2%). South Korea's stock market unchanged.

OIL ARCHIVES THE SECOND BEST HALF OF THE CENTURY

WTI oil moved little, on Friday's levels, at 74 dollars a barrel. Tonight the United States Air Force hit military bases of Shiite militias on the border between Syria and Iraq: the Pentagon has reported.

In the first half, oil recorded a rise of 45%, the second best result of the century.

Wall Street futures are little moved: for the S&P500 last week was the best since February (+2,7%).

A positive start is also expected for the European price lists. The spotlight is on the week's macro data: Eurozone PMIs and flash inflation data, both out on Wednesday.

The 1,52-year Treasury Note trades at XNUMX%.

CRYPTOCURRENCIES, LONDON BAN BINANCE

Bitcoin at $34.300, +3%. The British Financial Conduct Authority has warned that the major cryptocurrency operator, Binance, is not authorized in any way to carry out its activities on the regulated market. The company, in response to the tough stance, clarified that its service is not active in the UK.

WORK EMERGENCY: US DATA COMING SOON

In the USA, the most relevant data is that of the labor market due out on Friday. The change in non-agricultural wage earners in June is expected to improve slightly to +700 thousand.

THE WALL STREET JOURNAL: WITHOUT BENEFITS, UNEMPLOYMENT WILL FALL

We have been talking for months about the difficulties of companies in recruiting staff. The Wall Street Journal reports that in states where super unemployment benefits were removed ahead of the September deadline, people have returned to work en masse. In Missouri, the unemployment rate fell to 4,2%, versus a national average of 5,8%.

The agreement in Washington on the 1.100 billion dollar infrastructure plan is creaking, but for now it holds. President Joe Biden, before leaving for the holidays at Camp David, had said he also wanted to carry out a plan, opposed by the Republicans, against poverty. In the following hours, an about-face arrived which reunited the bipartisan alignment.

THE FAR RIGHT BEATEN IN FRANCE

After Germany comes France. Yesterday the moderate front took its revenge against the extreme right. The Gaullist Xavier Bertrand has won massively in the North West, while Marine Le Pen has not won in Provence and the Côte d'Azur. Its candidate Thierry Mariani, pro-Russian and defector of the Républicains, lost badly in the runoff, with a result lower than expected, beaten by the right-wing governor, Renaud Muselier.

MACRON INAUGURATES JP MORGAN, TAKEN IN LONDON

Emmanuel Macron's candidates humiliated. The president will take an international revenge today: over 400 international CEOs will participate in the day promoted to encourage investments in France. Tomorrow the CEO of JP Morgan, together with Macron, will inaugurate the new European headquarters of the bank, born after Brexit, a stone's throw from the Louvre.

ROME AT THE CENTER OF US DIPLOMACY

Rome is these days the terminal of US foreign policy. Yesterday US Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Foreign Minister Yair Lapid. Today the head of US diplomacy is concentrating meetings and summits in Italy: the G20 under Italian presidency and the visit to Pope Francis; the anti-ISIS intergovernmental summit and the stop at the FAO to talk about food emergencies in the southern hemisphere. The day will be dedicated above all to the summit of the anti-Islamic State coalition.

THE BLOCK OF LICENSES TO THE TEST OF DRAGONS

Prime Minister Mario Draghi will instead be busy defusing the minefield of layoffs. The blockade for large companies expires on Wednesday, but the government is working these days to introduce a selectivity criterion to restrict the blockage to only some companies. The blockade would be extended until October for the textile sector, in particular the crisis, and the workers of the hundreds of companies in crisis who have open tables at the Ministry of Economic Development would also benefit from the blockade. The choice of the instrument would fall on the decree-law, which would also contain another 18 weeks of the Covid cig and the two-month extension of the moratorium on sending tax files.

The 6-month Bot auction is scheduled for today: 6,5 billion offered. In the morning, Assogestioni will announce the data on funding from the managed savings system.

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