The appointment is for 17 pm today, Italian time, when Donald Trump's press conference will begin, the first since his electoral victory, ten days after his official entry into the White House. Expectations for what the new president will say are skyrocketing. As well as the enthusiasm of small businesses, the heart of the American economy: small business optimism has tore up the estimates (105.8 from the previous 98.4) thanks to a leap of 38 percentage points (from 12% to 50%) of owners who expect better business conditions with the new president. Truly an explosion of confidence that, at least for the moment, overshadows all other considerations.
Meanwhile, the "great enemy", namely China, also contributes to the rally. Data on the growth of producer prices in the Asian giant (the largest increase in the last five years) largely explain the rise in commodity prices, the real engine of the reflation of these weeks. Meanwhile, President Xi Jingping is preparing his suitcase: between 17 and 20 January he will participate, the first time for a Chinese premier, in the meeting in Davos. An eloquent way to propose the Chinese leadership at the helm of globalization as opposed to Trump's protectionism on the day of the president's entry into the White House. A positive comparison at a distance, in short. At least for now. Who knows tomorrow.
SAMSUNG DRAGS SEUL, ILLUMINA BOOM (+15%)
The stock markets of the Asia Pacific area (+0,4%) this morning reached the highs of the quarter, recovering all the declines following the nomination of Trump and the rise of the dollar. The best stock exchange is that of Seoul +1,4%, at the highest for 18 months, followed by Samsung, which continues the race triggered by the accounts for the quarter.
The Tokyo Stock Exchange is recovering after three days of decline. Jack Ma, the Alibaba tycoon, met yesterday at Trump Tower with the new president who, at the end of the meeting, declared: “Jack is a great, great entrepreneur”. Jack Ma presented a plan to increase sales of Made in the USA to 300 million Chinese of the nascent middle class.
Yahoo! it will be called Altaba, but for those who use the American company's email, search engine or news services, nothing will change. Not even the name. The new baptism concerns only what remains after the acquisition by Verizon, which in July 2016 agreed to pay 4,83 billion dollars to take control of the company's Internet division alone. The rest, ie 16% of the shares of the Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba, and 36% of the subsidiary Yahoo! Japan will merge into Altaba (which stands for alternative Alibaba) a new investment company without employees and products whose sole purpose will be to manage the equity assets that Verizon has not acquired.
The US markets are lagging behind, conditioned by the drop in oil. One has the feeling that the Dow Jones (-0,16%) is awaiting Trump's inauguration before giving the climb to 20. S&P closed unchanged. An exception is the Nasdaq (+0,36%) to the fourth consecutive record of 5.551,82 points driven by the health sector. Leading the race was Illumina (+15%), leader in diagnostics, which yesterday launched a product based on a new technology that is revolutionizing the business of human DNA analysis. Better Caterpillar blue chip (+1,5%).
VOLKSWAGEN ADMITS THE GUILTY, GM AND FCA FLY WON'T STOP
The automotive sector is still in the spotlight. General Motors (+3,72%) has revised upwards the earnings estimates both for the 2016 financial statements and for the 2017 forecasts: earnings per share will rise to 6-6,50 dollars against the previous estimate of 5,73. The Detroit company also increased the buyback by $5 billion.
Volkswagen (+0,14%) announced that it has reached a plea agreement with the US Department of Justice. The German group, which has acknowledged its guilt in Dieselgate, will pay 4,3 billion dollars in addition to ancillary measures on governance and the appointment of an independent figure in the first three years to supervise the adherence of products to US standards.
In this context, the race of Fiat Chrysler shares continues (+1,10%) which has infected the rest of the Agnelli stable: Exor +2,40 and Cnh Industrial +2,23%.
OIL HOLDS BACK, GOLDMAN “LEAVES” SAIPEM
Weak oil (Brent -1,2% to 54,30 dollars) after the new upward estimates of the US Energy Agency on 2017 production, stimulated by the increase in prices: +1,3%, to 9 million barrels, against the previous downward forecast (-0,9%). On Wall Street, the energy sector index fell by 0,95%.
Down in Piazza Affari Saipem (-4,5%), worst blue chip of the day after Goldman Sachs announced that it had removed the stock from the Conviction Buy List, while confirming the Buy judgment and the target of 0,59 euros. The measure comes after a +65% rally from the November lows.
Eni +1%. Kepler-Cheuvreux analysts strengthened their Buy rating by raising the target price to 18 euros from 15,50 euros. HSBC raised the target price to 16,70 euros from the previous 14 euros, confirming the Hold judgment.
MILAN STARTS AGAIN (+0,3%), BOT AUCTION TODAY
After yesterday's setback, the Milan Stock Exchange returned to growth: the Ftse Mib index closed at 19.424 points, up 0,33%. Positive also Paris (+0,04%) and Frankfurt (+0,21%). Madrid lost 0,34%.
London's rain of records continues (+0,65%): for 11 sessions, the City has closed in positive ground thanks to the weak pound's propellant. In Europe, raw material stocks rose above all (Stoxx of the sector +3,4%) after the positive data on the growth of producer prices in China (the largest increase in the last five years). Losses for Utilities (-0,8%) and Insurance (-0,4%).
The Btp/Bund spread was little moved at 162,65 basis points compared to the 161,751 of the previous closure. The ten-year rate is back a couple of points above 1,90%. Today the Treasury will offer 7 billion BOTs over 12 months. On the gray market, the share travels at the average price of 100,25, equal to a negative yield of around -0,24%, which will be compared with the -0,196% of the mid-December auction. Tomorrow it will be the turn of the medium-long term auction, in which up to 7,25 billion BTPs will be made available over three, seven and twenty years. Germany will place 7 billion of the new ten-year February 5, for which a coupon of 2027% was set in the morning.
COMMISSION ON BANKS UNDERWAY, BAD LOANS STABLE
The Parliamentary Commission of Inquiry on Banks takes shape. The measure was unanimously approved by the Chamber.
The strategy for the recovery of Monte Paschi is outlined. The bank will be recapitalised by the State with a total commitment of 6,6 billion, also taking into account the compensation for retail holders of subordinated bonds. The restructuring plan is preparatory to the rescue, which will be finalized in about two months. The principle of European burden sharing provides that the approximately 4,2 billion subordinated bonds issued by MPS are forcibly converted into shares, while the State will cover the 4,6 billion difference. The Treasury Ministry decree on the public guarantee for liquidity issues should arrive this week. The following week, the first 1,5-2 billion bond is expected.
Meanwhile, bank non-performing loans are not being cleared: according to the data contained in the Banca d'Italia supplement 'Money and Banks', gross non-performing loans amounted to 199,061 billion euro at the end of November compared to 198,599 in October, while net bad loans amounted to 85,221 billion from 85,474 of the previous month. On an annual basis, non-performing loans decreased by 1,7%.
GOOD BANKS, ATLAS TAKES CHARGE OF NEW NPLs
The banking index is flat in Piazza Affari. The only significant movement is that of Ubi Banca, which lost 1,34%. In the absence of new offers, the purchase of the three good banks (Banca Marche, Etruria and CariChieti) should reach a conclusion within this week. Today the Bank should formalize the binding offer for the purchase of the new Banca Marche, Etruria and Carichieti.
The three banks should be acquired at the symbolic price of one euro, but first they will get rid of 2,2 billion of non-performing loans, destined to be taken over by Atlante. The price of this transaction is very important as it results in the capital gap that will have to be filled by the Resolution Authority: we are talking about 3-500 million. The change of ownership is expected by the end of March.
Unicredit rises by 0,2%, Intesa loses 0,3%. Little move Banco Bpm. Mediobanca has launched a senior bond with a 2020 maturity. The €750 million issue has received an excellent reception, with requests for over €1,75 billion.
THE PATENT BOX GIVES SPRINT TO LUXURY
The luxury sector is in the spotlight. A study by Mediobanca Securities examined the effect of the patent box regulation on the sector. The broker expects an upward revision of the sector once the Made in Italy brands have joined the new tax regime. Also in the wake of the publication of preliminary data on 2016 sales.
Strong growth Brunello Cucinelli +4,41% after the preliminary data of the 2016 financial statements. Moncler +2,02%: Mediobanca analysts have raised the target price on the stock to 22,50 euro from the previous 20,40, confirming the Outperform rating . Salvatore Ferragamo +0,9%.
FLY ASTALDI AND TREVI
Astaldi (+5,45%) and Trevi (+6%) advance. Enel (-0,7%) and Snam (-1,4%) are down. Fincantieri was also down (-1,12%). Tas slip (-23,33%) which, however, has doubled its value since the beginning of the year, from 1,5 to 3 euros.
