It may seem like a Zeno paradox, but even today the Athens Stock Exchange is soaring. At the opening it gains over 3,6%, with the general index at 789,92 points. It is not enough: the ETF listed in Milan, which passively replicates the performance of the list, records an increase since the beginning of the year close to 30%, the best result among the European Stock Exchanges.
Investors therefore seem confident that they will arrive soon the two longed-for agreements: that between the government and the parties for the launch of the new austerity measures requested by the troika (EU, IMF and ECB) in exchange for new aid worth 130 billion euros and that between the Treasury of Athens and private creditors for debt restructuring public.
The other European lists however, they do not share these hopes. On the contrary, pessimism seems to reign among the major investors, so much so that by mid-morning all the main European markets are in negative territory: London and Frankfurt lose around half a point, Milan leaves 0,75% in the field, while the heaviest losses they are recorded in Paris, in the red by more than one point.
Yesterday closed in a stalemate the river summit between the Greek premier Lucas Papademos and the leaders of the main parties who support the Executive. The European Union had asked for an agreement by Sunday evening, but so far the only agreement reached concerns the cut in spending for 1,5% of GDP in 2012.
Un new vertex is scheduled for this morning and there are still many open questions: the troika has asked for new heavy sacrifices, from wage cuts to a new layoff plan. Against these prospects, the two largest Greek trade unions have proclaimed a general strike for tomorrow.
A dry no has come since right-wing conservative party, whose leader, Georgios Karatzaferis, has sent a letter to Papademos to ask for a government reshuffle that entrusts the main departments to technical ministers. The former socialist prime minister, George Papandreou, also said he was against the new measures.
As for the debt pact, the agency Fitch says she is confident Greece will make the necessary commitments for an "orderly restructuring" capable "of ensuring the stability of the payment system", reads a note addressed to investors in the structured finance sector. However, the agency observes that "in any case, a disorderly default by Greece, which could include an exit from the eurozone, cannot be entirely minimized and could disrupt payment systems".
Meanwhile, it is approaching the point of no return for the country: if a turning point in the negotiations does not arrive by February 13th, Greece will not be able to repay the 14,5 billion in maturing bonds in March. The nightmare of bankruptcy is increasingly real.
