However, the signs of economic recovery are multiplying together with the outbreaks of price increases. Hence the caution that accompanies the recovery of the price lists which, in any case, travel at the maximum. To give a measure of the strength of the recovery is, for example, the export boom of South Korea: +45% in May, never so good since 1988 thanks also to the semiconductor boom +24%. But the advance in the price of chips, combined with the rise in raw materials, accentuates the inflation risk: the march of gold continues (+8% in the month to 1.912 dollars an ounce), the dose increases Elon Musk who announces that he is forced to raise the list price of Tesla. The markets, on Monday orphaned by Wall Street and the London Stock Exchange, thus advance very cautiously. But the direction of travel, especially in Europe, is on the rise: Italy and Spain, +6% in May, are the best price lists, supported both by growth estimates linked to the forthcoming launch of EU plans and by price levels: the price/earnings ratio in the Old Continent is equal to 17 times against the 23 of the US markets. Bank of America thus goes so far as to suggest overweight on Europe with an eye to banks and luxury, well-present sectors in Piazza Affari.
THE STRENGTH OF THE YUAN IS BREAKING SHANGHAI
- Asia is also progressing, albeit at a slower rate (+7% since the beginning of the year). In the lead are the Korean Kospi and the Taiwan index, with increases of just over half a point. India also rose, with its GDP rising by 1,6% in the first quarter, probably compromised by the return of the pandemic in April.
- The strength of the yuan, which rose on Monday to a three-year high against the dollar at 6,3526 slows down the run of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Yesterday Beijing made a historic decision: from now on families will be able to have three children. But there are few who think that the measure could push the Chinese to have more children as Xi Jingping would like, worried by the falling birth rate.
- The Australian dollar also rose to 0,77605 against the dollar pending the central bank's rate decisions.
RAW MATERIALS TO THE STARS. NOW THE COFFEE RUNS TOO
- Raw materials are still on the rise. The Bloomberg Commodity Index gains 1%. Natural gas also rose (+3%), corn (+1,5%). Among yesterday's significant movements, that of coffee: +4%.
- WTI oil is at a three-month high, up 2%, on the day of the meeting in Vienna of the representatives of the OPEC member countries.
MILAN AT THE HIGHEST FOR 15 MONTHS
On the day of the preliminary data on inflation in May, the European stock exchanges, without Wall Street and London, experienced a session marked by weakness. Losing blows are Frankfurt -0,64% and Paris -0,57%. Weak also Madrid and Amsterdam. Milan, which closed on parity (+0,01%) at 25.170 points (in any case on a 15-month high) was no exception. At least in appearance, because during the session there was certainly no shortage of twists and turns.
CATHOLIC +15,3%, CALTAGIRONE ALSO VOTES FOR THE TAKEOVER OFFER
- Generals launched the takeover bid on all of Cattolica's shares Insurance at 6,75 euros for a total of 1.176 million with a 15,3% premium on the May 28 quotations. The Cattolica share goes much further, jumps by 13% to 6,84 euros per share and 1,2 billion in capitalization (at the end of the morning it falls back to 6,81 euros), while Generali gains 0,4% to 16,92 euros per share with the Ftse Mib positive by 0,4%.
- The blitz, approved by both Leonardo Del Vecchio and Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone as well as by the advisor Mediobanca, will allow Leone to become the first group in the non-life market and to strengthen its presence in the life market.
- UNIPOL RISES TO 7% OF POP. SONDRIO, RETELIT UNDER OPA
- Still on the insurance front, the confirmation that Unipol +0,97% rose to 9,01% of Popolare di Sondrio should be noted on the day of the ruling by the Council of State on the reform of cooperative banks.
- It was not the only takeover bid of the day. Marbles spa, controlled by the Spanish fund Asterion has launched a Public Offering voluntary purchase of all Retelit shares, already 28,748% owned, with the aim of delisting. The offer incorporates a 10,7% premium compared to the price of 2,571 euros recorded on Friday. Retelit, specialized in supporting public and private companies on digital transformation, is destined to be a major player in the country's digital growth plan. The effectiveness of the transaction will therefore be subject to the so-called “Golden Power” and for this reason the bidder will have to file the related application for authorization with the Prime Minister.
BENETTON LEAVES AUTOSTRADE: 5 BILLION FOR SHOPPING
The turning point for Autostrade per l'Italia came in the afternoon. Atlantia's shareholders' meeting approved the sale of Aspi to the consortium led by CDP which includes Macquarie and Blackstone. The transaction was approved with the favorable vote of 1.129 shareholders equal to 86,86% of the share capital. 60 shareholders, equal to 12,75% of the capital, voted against. Following the sale (€9,1 billion), Atlantia is estimated to have approximately €5 billion in cash, increasing strategic flexibility. Equita underlines that "even after the sale of Aspi, Edizione is in any case determined to remain a long-term investor in infrastructure".
In terms of takeover bids, it is also worth noting the rise of Carraro, + 1,61%, which has approached the new bid price adjusted today to 2,55 euro compared to the previous one of 2,40 euro by Fly Srl, the Carrara family.
BPM + 64% FROM JANUARY TO THE TOP IN EUROPE, UNICREDIT +22,5% IN MAY
- The season of grace for the banks continues. Banco BPM, little moved, with a gain of 24% stands out as the best stock of the Eurostoxx 600 in the month of May. Since the beginning of the year, Banco Bpm has gained 64%: much better than the +14% recorded by the FtseMib and more than double that recorded by the Italian banking sector +29%.
- Unicredit also shines, completing the best month of 2021 with a provisional balance of + 22,50% on the maximum for fifteen months.
- Asset management stocks increased: Banca Mediolanum +2,19%, Banca Generali +1,18% and Azimut +0,58%.
- The construction sector did well in the wake of the approval of the Decree
Simplifications: Webuild +1,6%, Buzzi Unicem +0,95%, Trevi +1,36%. - Among the major decreases: Enel – 1,07%; Leonardo – 0,84%; Nexi – 0,75%; Exor – 0,74%.
- In the rest of the list:
FINCANTIERI ENTERS THE BATTERIES, ELECTRIC MOTORCYCLES RUN
Geox ended trading up 5,98% to its highest level since February 2020, after rising by more than 30% in the last month. Intesa has restarted coverage on with an add rating and a target price of 1,35 euro.
Fincantieri +4,64% announced that together with Faist Group (an Italian group specializing in the development and supply of complete electricity storage systems) it has set up the joint venture Power4Future, dedicated to the production of lithium batteries.
On the Aim, Energica +7,75% should be noted. The order book for electric motorcycles which, as of today, is up by 83%, (4,1 million euros) at constant exchange rates, compared to the same period of 2020 and equal to approximately 67% of the entire turnover.
VISCO: TRANSACTIONS FOR 16 BILLION IN PARIS FOR 101
The signs of vivacity arriving from the list (in addition to banks and insurance companies to report construction and luxury) coincided with the signs of optimism, albeit cautious, arriving from Final considerations by the governor of the Bank of Italy Ignazio Visco who announced a rebound in the economy after a year and a half of blocks caused by Covid. GDP will rise by more than 4% this year, after -6,6% in 2020.
Vaccinations are accelerating and businesses are ready to return to invest. In the euro area, added the governor, there are no problems linked to inflationary risks and prematurely reducing monetary stimuli must be avoided at all costs. Public interventions which in 2020 exceeded 20 billion, between subsidies and tax credits, will have to continue, but they will have to become more selective. We also need greater recourse to alternative financing to bank credit: since the beginning of 2020, net issues of debt securities and listed shares made by Italian companies have amounted to around 16 billion, against 101 of the French ones and 87 of the German ones.
THE OECD FORESEES GDP +4,5%. SPREADS TO 104
The OECD has also raised its estimates for Italy, thanks to the effective vaccination campaign underway in the country. In the Economic Outlook, the Organization assumes that GDP will rise by 4,5% (from the +4,1% expected in March) and +4,4% from +4% in 2022. As regards the public accounts, the report deficit/GDP is forecast at 11,4% in 2021, then falling to 6,4% in 2022. Debt is assumed at 159,6% of GDP this year and 157,2% in 2022.
Globally, it reads, "the global economy is set to grow at the fastest pace in nearly half a century this year, supported by aggressive vaccination programs and the latest package of tax incentives from the US government".
The bond market is stable. The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of equal duration closes at 104 basis points, the ten-year yields 0,86%.
ECB purchases under the Pepp program are down slightly: 20,03 billion euros in the last week (against 21,67 billion).
