Wall Street tried, but couldn't. In the last hour of trading, the rebound of the indices after the declines of the previous days went up in smoke. The Nasdaq, in particular. The landslide of titles rewarded by the closures of the pandemic year has been broadcast. Peloton collapses (-24%), the Technogym of America, after CNBC wrote that the demand for bicycles for spinning is declining, so the top management has decided to reduce production. A post by CEO John Foley appeared on the company's website in the evening, contesting the rumors, not fully, and providing some indications on the accounts for the latter part of 2021.
Even more significant is the collapse of Netflix after the Stock Exchange (-20%) after announcing that no more than two million new subscribers are expected for the first quarter, half of what is already forecast.
The US stock exchanges have thus changed course, but have not yet chosen the new champions, as demonstrated by the final drop in the S&P 500 index: the winds of war are looming in Ukraine, new weekly unemployment claims are rising (286 against 231). Even the relative calm of bonds, the primary cause of the declines, does not excite the buyers.
Asia Pacific stocks fell this morning on the back of last night's Wall Street U-turn, the second in a row. Tokyo Nikkei -1,4% (-2,6% for the week). In Japan, inflation accelerated in December, but +0,8% yoy is less than economists expected. Hang Seng of Hong Kong -0,3% (+1,7% for the week), CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -0,9% (+1,3%). Kospi of Seoul -1,5% (-3,4%). Sydney S&P ASX 200 -2% (-3%). Among the worst stock exchanges in the world this week, that of India: the BSE Sensex loses 0,8%, if it does not recover, the weekly balance is -3,7%. Among the best is that of Brazil: Ibovespa +3,3%.
Within an hour, the Nasdaq lost a generous 3%. The Dow Jones is also down +0,89%. S&P -1,10%. Nasdaq futures lost 0,8% this morning. EuroStoxx 50 index future -1%. The 1,77-year Treasury Note has strengthened over the last few hours: it is 1,83% this morning, from XNUMX% yesterday. The market is starting to factor in a slowdown in growth caused by the upcoming monetary tightening.
FRANCE RISES, OIL AND GAS HOLDING DOWN. BITCOIN COLLAPSES
Safe haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss franc strengthened. The Australian dollar and the Turkish lira are down. Euro Dollar slightly moved. Bitcoin down 7%, below $39 for the first time since June.
Brent oil and WTI drop 2% following the release of US crude inventories. The arrival of more liquefied gas ships in Europe has been depressing Dutch gas prices for a couple of days.
LAGARDE INSISTS: NO RATES RISE
Silence, the ECB speaks. Christine Lagarde yesterday launched a strong defense of the response to rising inflation, warning that markets shouldn't expect an approach similar to the one taken by the Fed, because the situation doesn't justify it. Lagarde pointed to lower inflation, which was confirmed at 5% in December, and a weaker recovery. While this may be true, markets have priced in the possibility of a similar trend reversal as we have seen in the US and UK, with a ten basis point increase expected in October. Therefore the president ruled out a change in monetary policy in the short term. It is difficult to understand whether investors will comply with the central bank's word: with the German 2019-year bond moving into positive territory on Wednesday for the first time since mid-XNUMX, a script already seen in the US seems to be unfolding.
BUT EU INFLATION TRAVELS 5 POINTS ABOVE THE BUND
The definitive data on inflation in Europe confirmed the forecasts: growth in December was +5% year on year.
In this context, government bond yields appear to have little movement. The 0,03-year German Bund fell back into negative territory at -10%. The Italian secondary closed in green, with slightly decreasing rates: the 1,30-year BTP recorded +0,07%, while the Bund -136%, for a differential of 132 basis points. Spread at XNUMX points.
The minutes show that in December 18 out of 25 directors voted against the hypothesis of extending the Qe to compensate for the end of the Pepp purchases.
The Fitch rating agency has sided in favor of the ECB's arguments. The ECB, he writes, will not follow the Federal Reserve on the path of interest rate hikes over the next two years, while a hike could be possible in 2024.
BUSINESS PLACE RECOVERS: +0,73%
Piazza Affari appreciated by 0,73%, to 27.570 points. In the first 10 months of 2021, almost 6 million new employment contracts were activated in the private sector, with an increase of 20% compared to the same period of 2020. This is the picture drawn by the INPS in the Observatory on precariousness.
In the rest of Europe, Frankfurt rose by 0,64%, together with Madrid (+0,46%), Amsterdam (+0,74%) and Paris (+0,3%).
UNILEVER GIVES UP GSK: £50 BILLION IS NOT ENOUGH
Unilever -0,54% after abandoning plans to acquire GlaxoSmithKline's consumer healthcare division, not intending to further raise the £50m offer.
GENERALI DIVIDES CONSOB: SAVONA AGAINST "IL VECCHIO"
The Generali affair (+0,93%), between now and the April meeting, is destined every day to reserve surprises, controversies and skirmishes, before the war waged. Yesterday it was Consob's turn, which has not yet answered a series of questions posed by the Caltagirone lawyers. In recent days the paper had opened the front with an article entitled “Not only Generali. Thus Savona holds Consob hostage”. The president of the Commission reacted via tweet as follows: “Not having time to respond to friends who show me their solidarity, I wanted to let people know that it's not me who keeps Consob in check but it is the old Consob that keeps Savona in check. The eternal struggle between conservation and innovation on which the future of Italy is at stake is underway”. In short, the control body is divided more than ever.
In this climate, the five commissioners will continue the discussion today. But given the premises, it is expected that the Consob recommendation, when it comes out, will change little compared to the draft "reminder" released on December 2, containing a series of stakes to the proponents of the "BoD lists". Paletti that Generali already respected or has in the meantime adapted. On the other hand, the panel will not address Caltagirone's question on the legitimacy of the securities loan made by Mediobanca to raise Generali's voting rights from 13% to 17,2%, pending additional information arriving from the offices.
TELECOM STARTS AGAIN, WAITING FOR LABRIOLA
Telecom purchases return to Piazza Affari, +3,34%, after the recent losses. Other stocks sacrificed in recent sessions recovered: Nexi +1,7%, Amplifon +1,6% and Recordati +1,5%.
THE INTERIM DIVIDEND SHOCKS ENEL
Utilities are picking up, starting with Enel, +2,82% pending government measures to tackle energy price increases and control bills. The detachment of the 2022 interim dividend is expected on Monday. A2a +2,18%; Hera +1,68%; Terna +1,88%.
STELLANTIS: THE CHINESE DOWN, THE PEUGEOTS ARE UP
Just celebrated its first birthday, Stellantis (-1%) finds itself managing another step towards the disengagement of the Chinese partner Dongfeng for 665 million euros. The share of the Asian partner will decrease, in view of the definitive exit, to 3,3%. The identity of the buyers has never been revealed, but the merger agreement between FCA and PSA provides that Peugeot Invest can rise from 7,2 to 8,7% of the capital by buying its own shares from Dongfeng.
KEPLER PROMOTES ATLANTIA, PAUSE FOR OILS
Weak Pirelli (-1%), little move Atlantia (-0,2%) on which Kepler Chevreux raised the earnings per share estimates by 2,8% for 2022 and 11,5% for 2023 in order to to incorporate the acquisition of Yunex.
Pause for oil companies: Saipem -1,3%, Eni -0,9%. Rebound Tenaris: +0,4%.
EGM, THE FABILIA (HOTEL) CHAIN IS STRENGTHENING
On the Egm, noteworthy is the leap of Fabilia (+10,26%), the Veneto chain of Family Hotels & Resorts which announced the entry into a new structure in the heart of the Euganean spas by signing an agreement with Hotel Terme Augustus three-year lease.
