The bear dance, which began yesterday in Europe after the alarm on German industrial production, continued this morning on the Asian price lists. All stock exchanges, with the exception of Shanghai (+0,1% on reopening after a week's holiday), are red.
Tokyo loses 1,7%: since the beginning of the year the drop, in dollars, is around 7%. The monthly meeting of the Bank of Japan ended in stalemate. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has expressed concern about the decline in the yen: the season of rainy stimuli for the economy seems to be over.
Down Hong Kong (-0,9%), after three days of recovery. Macau's casino stocks plummeted: in September casino revenues fell by 11%. The Chinese services PMI signals a new contraction in September.
Difficult session also for Wall Street, despite the positive opinion of the IMF on the stars and stripes economy: Dow Jones down by 1,61%, S&P 500 -1,2%, Nasdaq -1,56%. Tonight, with the Stock Market closed, the Fed's minutes will be released. At the same time, the US quarterly season will kick off with Alcoa's accounts.
Yesterday, then, a day of sharp decline for the European stock exchanges. The Paris Stock Exchange lost 1,8% and Madrid 2%. Frankfurt falls by 1,3%. In Milan, the Ftse Mib index closed down by 1,7%.
EBOLA SYNDROME ON TRAVEL: PLANES DOWN, AUTOGRILLS AND WDF
Three engines of the decline:
1) The downward revision of the estimates of the International Monetary Fund on the GDP of the euro area. The new forecast indicates growth of 0,8% in 2014 (from +1,1% in the previous estimate) and 1,3% in 2015 (from +1,5%). Estimates also lowered for Italy with the 2014 GDP now forecast at -0,2% from the previous -0,1%, that for 2015 is expected to grow by 0,8% (from +1,1%). The risk of recession for the Eurozone, for the Fund, is 30% in 2014, 40% for 2015.
2) The new bad news on the German economy. Industrial production in August marked a drop of 4%, the heaviest figure in the last 5 and a half years.
3) The new case of Ebola in Spain has cast serious concern on the Transport and Leisure sector: Thomas Cook lost 5,3%, Lufthansa -5,2%, RyanAir -4,9%, EasyJet -5,3% . In Italy, Autogrill paid the price, losing 4,9%, World Duty Free -2,7% and Atlantia -2,8%.
8 BILLION BOTS COMING FRIDAY. WAITING FOR THE RATING
Inflation falls again in the Eurozone, to an all-time low of 1,189% during the week, but there is a pause in the race for bonds from the European periphery. The spread between the BTP and the Bund rose to 143 basis points. Meanwhile, the Ministry of the Economy has communicated that at the auction of 10 October, with settlement on 14, 8 billion 12-month BOTs will be offered against 9,775 billion maturing. Also on Friday there will be the most feared appointment: the review of Italy's rating by Moody's.
BRAZIL BRAKES FIAT, AGCO WARNING CONSIDERS ON CNH
In Piazza Affari in the red Cnh Industrial (-4,59% to 6,135 euros). the stock paid for the news that a company in the same sector, Agco, lowered its estimates for 2014 EPS. Fiat was weak (-2,09%), although above the lows, after the data on car sales in Brazil, which show a marked slowdown and with the group doing worse than the market. After acknowledging that no creditor has filed an objection, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and Borsa Italiana yesterday approved the listing of the ordinary shares of Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV (FCA). The merger is expected to take effect on October 12, 2014, and FCA's ordinary shares will be listed starting from Monday, October 13, 201. In Exor's footsteps -2,9%.
MEDIOBANCA: ITALIAN BANKS OK IN EU EXAMS
Italian banks have a solid structure and sufficient capital buffer to face the European exercises on bank balance sheets but Carige and MPS risk failing, albeit slightly, the comprehensive assessment of the ECB exam, even if any deficit can still be covered with measures already in place. This is the verdict of the Mediobanca Securities report which reaffirmed the overweight rating on the banking sector by restoring coverage on Bper +0,16% (outperform and target price of 7,5 euro), Banca Carige (neutral rating and target price of 0,11 .0,95 euro) and Credito Valtellinese (neutral and target price at XNUMX euro).
Analysts confirm the "outperform" ratings on Unicredit and Intesa Sanpaolo with target prices unchanged at 8,90 euros and 2,80 euros respectively. The same opinion also applies to Ubi Banca (but with a revised target price from €8,30 to €7,80), Banco Popolare (revised target price from €14,50 to €14) and Credem (target price at €8,60). “Neutral” valuation for Mps (target price at €1,15) and Pop Milano (target price at €0,67).
Unicredit was weak in yesterday's session (-1,31%). The decision on the sale of Uccmb, the group company that manages a loan portfolio whose value is around 3,4 billion euros, could arrive today, after about one billion was spun off from the package. Last week binding offers were presented by the consortium Prelios/Fortress and Lone Star.
Monte Paschi rises by 0,1%, on the eve of tomorrow's entry into the Board of Directors of the representatives of Btg Pactual and Fintech.
UTILITIES AND ENERGY DO NOT ESCAPE THE RED
Sitting in the red for the other blue chips:
Telecom Italia, unchanged for most of the session, worsened in the final (-0,69%). The market is wary of the moves in Brazil by suitors for the subsidiary Tim Participacoes. Yesterday it was reported that Grupo Oi, candidate to launch a bid on the Brazilian company, could sell the non-core activities in Portugal to raise cash
Under pressure, due to drop in raw materials and demand, oil and energy: Eni -2,32%, Enel -2,24% and Enel Green Power -2%.
POSITIVE NOTES FROM DATALOGIC AND FINCANTIERI
Datalogic +2,37% to 8,65 euros should be noted on the rest of the price list). Berenberg has started hedging the stock with a buy rating and a target price of 11,8 euros per share. Fincantieri is positive (+1,12%): Equita Sim has started hedging with a hold rating and a target price of 0,80 euro.
