THEOECD praise again the reforms fielded in recent years in Italy, “in particular the Jobs Act and the reduction of social contributions”, reforms thanks to which “the damage inflicted by the crisis on the economy and the social fabric of the country is beginning to be healed”. In the annual report on the peninsula, the Parisian body also mentions the reforms of the education system and public administration.
But the study can not ignore the negative outcome of the referendum on the constitutional reforms of last December: "The rejection - we read - increased the climate of political uncertainty, however the reform process must be continued if Italy wants to build a more inclusive society and improve growth prospects". This is why the victory of the no "risks slowing down the reform process, diminishing growth prospects and making fiscal consolidation more difficult”.
According to the OECD, Italy's economy today "it is recovering after a long and deep recession“; the recovery was helped by "the government's macroeconomic policies, an accommodating monetary policy, as well as the low prices of raw materials".
However, “since the beginning of the crisis real GDP per capita has fallen by about 10% and is now at the same level as in 1997. Absolute poverty has almost doubled compared to the levels recorded before the crisis – notes the OECD – e it particularly affected young people and children".
The OECD revised upwards the forecast on Italy's economic growth this year, now estimating a GDP of plus 1 per cent after the plus 0,9 per cent indicated on 2016, while for 2018 it has confirmed the expectation of plus 1 per cent. The data is one decimal point higher both for 2016 and for 2017 than the estimates contained in the Economic Outlook of last November 28th.
In the meantime, the recovery of theoccupation: after a plus 1,3 percent in 2016, the Parisian body estimates plus 0,9 percent in 2017 and plus 0,6 percent in 2018. The rate of unemployment instead it will go from 11,5 percent in 2016 to 11,1 percent this year and to 10,7 percent in 2018.
Il deficit Italy's budget will continue to fall. After 2,4 percent of GDP in 2016, this year the budget deficit will decrease to 2,3 percent and in 2018 to 2,2 percent of GDP.
As for debt, after the 132,8 percent indicated for 2016, the OECD forecasts a reduction to 132,7 percent in 2017 and a moderation to 132,1 percent in 2018.
The OECD forecasts for our country are better than those released on Monday by the European Commission.
