Despite the many uncertainties, the Eurozone economy will experience gradual growth until it increases by 2,25% at the end of 2016, even if the risks associated with a new financial storm remain "elevated". To say it is theEconomic Outlook 2015 compiled by the OECD, according to which the States will have to pursue "a credible consolidation of public finances" to contain public debts, which are still very high in several countries.
The fall in the price of oil, as well as the depreciation of the euro and the policies implemented by the ECB, are pushing the growth of the currency union, explains the OECD. However, it is necessary to strengthen investments in support of the economy.
As far as the 'Italy, the forecasts announced today by the OECD for 2016 GDP come in at +1,5% and are the highest among the official estimates for the Italian economy, given that the growth estimates by the Government and the EU Commission stop at lower levels. For 2015, however, the OECD expects growth of 0,6% like the EU.
The OECD Outlook, while noting the reform efforts of the Italian executive, focuses attention on the improvements that need to be prepared, especially in the reduction of differences between genders, to encourage women's participation in the labor market.
Looking at the complex ofOECD areaon the other hand, the six-month outlook shows a downward estimate, at +1,9% for 2015 and +2,5% for 2016 against the +2,3% and +2,6% of the forecasts November. The decline in the USA weighs on the cut in the estimate, a clear decrease compared to previous forecasts: +2% for 2015 and +2,8% in 2016 against +3,1% and +3% of the November estimate . World GDP should grow by 3,1% this year and 3,8% next year against +3,7% and +3,9% estimated in November.
According to the chief economist of the Parisian organization Katherine Mann, “the economic recovery after the economic and financial crisis that erupted in 2008 has been unusually weak. Growth remains slower than the average pace recorded in the 12 years preceding the crisis”.
“2015 – according to Mann – got off to a bad start for the global economy, with the weakest quarter since the beginning of the crisis, even if these factors should be temporary. What is missing are investments that remain modest because companies and governments are reluctant to make them. Demand-oriented policies are not enough to relaunch them, warns the OECD. Political uncertainty must be reduced, avoiding tug-of-war over the US budget and finding a favorable solution to the Greek crisis in the eurozone”.
“The downward revision of US growth – continues Mann – and the upward revisions for the Eurozone and Japan show more balanced growth in the world and this gives greater support to investments that are driven not only by the situation of a single country, but also by that of other countries. So balanced growth contributes to investment”.
