THE EXPECTATIONS FOR THE GDP OF BERLIN AND PARIS WEIGH ON THE MARKETS
UTILITIES SHOCK BAGS, FLAT TELECOM
The crisis does not end, long live the crisis. THE financial markets, after noting disappointing macro results, issued the ruling: given the general situation, there will be no rate hike.
The response was a widespread rally. Tokyo this morning it advanced by 0,6%, stable Shanghai. The news of the day comes from Korea which cut the discount rate to 2,25% to revive growth.
A Wall Street the Dow Jones index advanced 0,55%, the S&P 500 0,6% and the Nasdaq rose 1,02%. Still driving technology stocks: in evidence Amazon (+2,4%), Apple and Microsoft (1,2%).
On positive ground the price lists of the Old Continent: Paris +0,7%, Frankfurt +1,4%, London +0,4%. In Milan, the FtseMib index rose by 0,6%.
DILMA ROUSEFF'S CHALLENGER DIES. BOVESPA DOWN
During the night he died in a plane crash Edward Fields, the challenger of Dilma Rousseff in the next presidential election in Brazil next October: the reaction to the downward trend of the San Paulo Stock Exchange was immediate: -1,5%.
It still goes down Oil prices: Brent at 103,78 per barrel, at a 13-month low. Stable the euro against the dollar at 1,3360;
The pound slipped to 80,20 against the euro: the Bank of England did not raise rates, disappointing speculation expectations. Bond market yields are down. The US two-year T bond slipped to 0,41% from 0,59% in just ten sessions. The Fed funds at 99,75 testify that operators are now convinced that US rates will remain around 0,25% for a long time.
Lo spread between BTPs and Bunds he moved little. He closed at 170 points from 166 points yesterday with a 2,73-year rate at 144%. The spread between Bonos and the Bund stood at 2,47 points with a yield of XNUMX%.
BAD NEWS KEEP RATES RISING AWAY
Paradoxically, it was a shower of bad news on the economic front that pushed the markets higher which add to the worries about the ongoing geopolitical crises. In this context, the reasoning of the operators is that the feared rise in interest rates is receding. The Descent of Japanese GDP (-6,8% on an annual basis) and the fall in credits in China which threatens a new slowdown in the economy. The decision of the Bank of England not not to raise rates, demonstrating that the recovery is not yet solid. Weak data from US Retail Sales unchanged on a month-on-month basis in July. Above all, however, concern for the Eurozone prevails, fueled by inflation data inflation data in July in Germany (+0,3% month on month), France (-0,3% month on month) and Spain (-0,4% yoy), and by those on industrial production in the Eurozone (-0,3% yoy in June) and Greece's GDP (-0,2% yoy in the second quarter) .
They will arrive today the most anticipated numbers of the week: GDP trend in the second quarter. There is great expectation for the trend of the German economy, expected to slow down (perhaps in negative territory). No less important is the French figure, expected between 0 and +0,1%. In that case, it would be clear by now that the Hollande government will fail to meet its budget targets, which could trigger a political crisis as well as market disaffection. The Bundesbank president Jens Weidmann he has already rejected in advance, in an interview with Le Monde, the hypothesis of a softer attitude of Germany towards Paris (and Italy). “France – she said – continues to fire largely supernumerary civil servants”.
E.ON SHOCKS UTILITIES
The expectation of falling rates has given wings to utilities, among the great protagonists of the European session. The rally was led by German groups E.On and Rwe, up 4,8% and 3% respectively. The leap of E.On, in particular, drove the entire sector: the Eurostoxx Utility index was the best of the day with a gain of 1,8%. The effect has infected Enel +1,6%, recovering after the 9% loss last week. Enel Green Power +1,3%. Equita raised its target price from 2,35 to 2,5 euro, confirming the buy recommendation after the six-monthly accounts exceeded Snam's expectations +1%. The changes in oil stocks were more modest: Eni rose by 0,4%, Saipem +0,8%.
TELECOM ITALIA: THE OFFER FOR GVT IS NOT THERE YET
Flat course for Telecom Italy which closes in parity at 0,823 euro. Marco Patuano's Parisian visit to Vincent Bolloré did not bring the expected news. It was an "interim" meeting awaiting a possible offer from Telecom for the Brazilian Gvt to oppose Telefonica's proposal which will expire on September 3rd. Analysts of Banca Akros, who confirmed the TI stock's accumulated rating and target price at 1 euro, expect the stock to remain weak until any moves on the reorganization of the Brazilian market are announced. "Caution", in view of a possible substantial capital increase to promote an interesting offer on Gvt, was expressed by Credit Suisse (neutral rating and target price at 0,85 euro) and by Citigroup (sell and target price at 0,5 ,XNUMX €).
GTECH IS WORTH A BET, FINCANTIERI GETTING SPEED
Sharp rise of GTech which gains 3%: the company obtained a commitment of 13 billion euros from 8,7 banks to acquire IGT after it received the go-ahead from the US Antitrust two days ago, writes Corriere della Sera.
Browsing in Piazza Affari picks up speed Fincantieri which closed the best session since it was listed on the Stock Exchange (3 July last) with a leap of 9,3% to 0,6975 euro after having recorded a maximum of 0,7045 euro. The takeoff was made possible by a barrage of positive recommendations: yesterday the ban on recommendations for the banks that participated in the placement syndicate expired. Mediobanca in a report assigned the rating Outperform and a target of 0,82 euro. Positive judgment also from Morgan Stanley which initiates hedging with an Overweight judgment and a target price of 0,87 euros and from Citigroup (Buy , target price at 0,85 euros). From Credit Suisse comes a Neutral with a target of 0,7 euros.
BANKS, POPULAR SUPERSTAR
The race continued in Piazza Affari Banco Popolare +4% at an altitude of 11,44. Strong increase also for Credem +4,1%.
Unicredit advances +1,5%, judged among the most interesting stocks in the European "periphery" by Nomura. Intesa rose by 1%. Negatives Pop.Milan -1,3% and MontePaschi -1,2%.
INDUSTRY, DEERE HOLDS BACK THE MOVE OF CNH
Fiat +0,9% among the worst blue chips of the day, Cnh stands out with a drop of 2,4% to 6,295 euros. The profit warning launched by the US competitor Deere weighed on the performance of the tractor and construction equipment shares, which fell by 1% on Wall Street after having revised downwards the forecast of net profit for the whole of 2014. Negative closures also for Finmeccanica -1,6% and Prysmian -1,2%.
Among construction stocks, it falls back Buzzi -1,1%, Italcementi instead rose +1,4%, promoted by the American broker Sanford Bernstein
