It's not so much the good accounts 2024 and guidance 2025 in line with expectations, but the announcement of the start of the distribution of dividends that has carried in flight the title Nexi at Piazza Affari up to almost +10%. The payments company has indicated for 2024 revenues growing by 5,1% year on year to 3.514 million euros and a ebitda equal to 1.863 million, +7,1%, with a ebitda margin at 53%, 101 basis points more than in 2023: all numbers in line with analysts' expectations, who were instead surprised by the promised distribution of 600 million for shareholders, through dividends and buybacks, foreseeing that increase the amount over time. Net income was 731 million, an increase of 4,1%. Who knows if these numbers are able to reassure the Italian government that is in its capital through Deposits and Loans Fund, concerned about the huge debt load, so much so that they have on the table various dossiers to try to lift her up.
“We intend to return the majority of the excess cash to our shareholders from now on, while committing to maintaining the status of investment grade" said the CEO Paul Bertoluzzo referring to the promotion by Fitch last December. “We will start this year already distribute a significant dividend which we expect to increase over time“. For 2025, the board of directors will propose to the next shareholders' meeting (April 25, ed) a return of capital of 600 million euro (10% of Nexi's market capitalization and 75% of the expected free cash flow for 2025), of which 300 million euros in dividends and more 300 million of euros through a program of purchase of treasury sharesThe announced coupon is of € 0,25 per share.
A Business Square the title Nexi, which had lost a lot of ground in the previous sessions, takes off and at mid-session shows a gain of 9,78% to 5,10 euros. During this 2025 the stock remains in the red, currently at -7%, while in the last 12 months the decline has even reached 27%.
Cash generation grows 19%. Debt eases
The data also surprised analysts: excess cash generation, increased by 19% to 717 million. The Capex decreased by 10,7% to 443 million and the strong trend continued cost reduction of transformation and integration equal to 92,9 million in 2024, -20% compared to the previous financial year. Thus theearning per share normalized increased by 11% to 0,59 with a profit attributable to the group always normalized equal to 731 million (+4,1%). The Merchant Solutions area, which represents 57% of the group's revenues, recorded a turnover growth of 6,3% to almost touch 2 billion. The net debt fell to 4,971 billion (in September 2024 it was equal to 5,2 billion) and the relationship with ebitda decreased to 2,7.
“In 2024 we continued our growth path in all geographies and business areas, generating more and more cash thanks also to a constant focus on operational efficiency” said Bertoluzzo. At the same time, “we have continued to invest in innovative products, modern technology platforms and strategic capabilities, further strengthening the group's future growth. Looking to 2025, we expect to continue to grow and expand our margins, further increasing our cash generation and continuing to invest with great conviction in the potential of growth of digital payments, a strategic sector for the future of Europe”.
For 2025, EBITDA margin expansion of “at least 50 basis points”
Nexi's 2025 targets see low-to-mid-single digit revenue growth year-on-year (consensus +3,6%), influenced by exceptionally high impacts related to the sale of acquiring businesses by some banks and the renegotiations of contracts relevant in terms of size. The group also expects an expansion of theEbitda margin of “at least 50 basis points” per year and an excess cash generation of “least 800 million” (consensus 809 million).
Il Nexi's fate remains uncertain and a question mark for the Italian government which is in its capital through Deposits and Loans Fund. Several hypotheses are being studied to try to reinvigorate it. One of these is the hypothesis of integration of Nexi with the French Worldline: on the table for some time in an attempt to compete with US competitors, it has returned to the forefront with the share swap operation between Post Office and Cdp. The Italian government does not like this hypothesis very much, Reuters reports, fearing obstacles from France on the employment front. But, of course, it remains a dossier on the table, together with those of Nexi delisting and privatization of the company with some co-investors who should intervene to relieve it from the control of the market and reduce the accumulated debt load.
