This time the fear lasted for a morning or so. The gas quotes natural, which jumped yesterday in Amsterdam to a maximum of 49,31 euros per megawatt hour (+12%) and fell this morning to around 48,2 euros (-2,5%) compared to the highs.
Natural gas, Descalzi: “Marginal impact on production”
A slowdown that is proving the experts right. “War is terrible – Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi said yesterday – but the impact on gas production is marginal”. Of course, however, the manager added, “there is the issue of the possible consequences which worry the markets and lead to prudence. But we need to understand what the evolution will be."
The numbers for now justify the trust of Eni's number one:
- Le gas stocks natural gas have exceeded 70% of storage capacity both in Italy and in the rest of the EU.
- Not only that: “We confirm – added Descalzi – that in 2024 we will arrive at 100% replacement of Russian gas” already halved since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine.
Gas warning signs
But in one highly volatile economy, where bad surprises are always lurking, it would be unwise to ignore the warning signs which caused the, more than temporary, surge in prices on Monday.
What pushed prices up to their highest levels since the end of August was first and foremost the prudential stop to the production of Tamar offshore field, owned by Chevron, which exports gas to Egypt and Jordan. But the real alarm went off much further north, on the Baltic chessboard, apparently far from the winds of war in Gaza.
In fact, on Sunday night it was the gas pipeline connecting Finland was damaged, fresh NATO freshman, with Estonia. It is very likely that the breakage of the pipe that runs about sixty meters below the sea surface is linked to a attempt, accused the Helsinki government, immediately supported by NATO which opened an investigation. It's not irreparable damage, but it serves as yet another sign of tensions on the energy front in the context of a 360-degree comparison that now represents a single, enormous playing field.
In this context, that cannot be overlooked Algeria, today our most important strategic supplier, has sided without hesitation alongside Hamas. Will it be able to continue to be a reliable partner? To understand the situation, Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani immediately contacted the nomenklatura of the North African country. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's mission to Mozambique and Congo, other countries at the center of Italian supplies, takes on a particular political flavour.
Bigger problems with oil
The picture seems calm, in short, the situation could worsen. The worst problems, however, can come from oil chessboard rather than natural gas. For now, there are no production problems for this latter commodity, also assisted by strong investments in infrastructure towards the Atlantic.
Another story for oil, in supply crisis after the cuts imposed by OPEC+. A new embargo against Iran could have major consequences on the market.
“If the conflict spread to Iran – comments Davide Tabanelli of Nomisma energia -, a remote but possible hypothesis, the price of oil could even go up to 150-200 dollars per barrel and the price of petrol could no longer reach 2 euros per liter but even 2,5-3 euros".
