Nasdaq over 7 points, oil at its highest since 2015, the euro close to 1,21 on the dollar. This is how 2018 presented itself, with an impressive synchronized rally of the planet's economies which risks putting the expansive strategies of the ECB and the Central Bank of Japan under pressure. It is no coincidence that Wall Street's rise coincided with the increase in yields both on the dollar (1,91% for the two-year T-Bond, 2,46% for the ten-year) and in the Eurozone, the most effervescent area since point of view of growth, as confirmed by the PMI data.
It will not be easy for Mario Draghi to curb the requests of the hawks: the member of the ECB directorate Benoit Coueré has already anticipated that, in his opinion, the Qe will have to end in September. It will be even more difficult for Italy to sustain the upward pressure on Italian debt securities, which have started to falter even with respect to Spain and Portugal. The spread, as expected, will be the true thermometer of the campaign.
USA, SPRINT START FOR TECHNOLOGY AND CONSUMPTION
Meanwhile, MeteoBorsa reports rising temperatures on all price lists. The first Guinness record of 2018 was established by the Nasdaq: 7.006,90 points, an increase of 1,5%. It took 8 months to earn a thousand points, under the impetus of Apple (+1.8%), Amazon (+1,7%), Alphabet (+1,05), Facebook (+2,8%) and so on.
The rise also involved the other US lists. The Dow Jones gains 0,42%, S&P +0,83%. Consumer stocks were in strong evidence after a Citigroup report listed the benefits of the tax reform for the sector, exceeding what was already expected.
Oil stocks also rallied (+1,8%). The protests in Iran help to support the prices of Brent ($66,59 a barrel) and WTI ($60) which have grown by 43% since mid-50, despite the fact that the North Sea and Libyan pipelines are back in operation. At Piazza Affari Saipem +2017%, Eni +0,5%.
CHINA SUPERSTAR, PHILIPPINES AND NEW ZEALAND RECORDS
The bull run continued in the East. The Csi 1,3 index of Shanghai and Shenzhen rose sharply (+300%). The Seoul Stock Exchange gains 0,4%, that of Hong Kong 0,3%, that of Mumbai 0,3%. The benchmark stock market indices of the Philippines and New Zealand hit levels this morning not seen in history. The MSCI Asia Pacific index is one step away from the absolute record reached in 2007. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is still closed for holidays.
In Seoul, Hiunday Heavy Industries, the most important shipyard in the world, rose by 10% after the presentation of the outlook for the new year.
EU EXCHANGES WEAK. MIFID 2 STARTS TODAY
The rush of the euro conditioned the first session of 2018 of the European stock lists which limited the deficit only in the second part of the session thanks to the positive opening of Walll Street and the purchases of minerals and energy.
Starting this morning Mifid 2, the Investment Services Directive. According to S&P the change will have negative implications for brokers, almost all investment banks (but the largest) and asset managers, but will be manageable for most other banks without a significant impact, at the moment, on their ratings .
Thanks to the rally in the afternoon, Piazza Affari contained losses, -0,04%, Ftse Mib index at 21.845 points. In the morning it had dropped to 21.613 points, the lowest since September. Madrid holds (+0,35%), Paris is down (-0,45%). Frankfurt -0,36%, London -0,52%. The Athens Stock Exchange stands out, up 2% and at its highest level since September.
THE EU INDUSTRY HAS NEVER BEEN SO STRONG
The manufacturing sector of the Eurozone closed 2017 with the best performance of the historical series, at 60,6. "The manufacturing boom gained further momentum in December, ending the year with a series-best performance and setting the stage for a positive start to 2018," noted IHS Markit Chief Economist Chris Williamson. “The anticipatory indices for the new year are encouraging: the voice of new orders is close to records and sales at a new high, while the employment chapter remains on the records set in November”.
Growth in Italy also remains sustained but slowing down compared to the previous two months. The Italian PMI manufacturing index fell to 57,4 from a six-and-a-half-year high of 58,3 recorded in November, still well above the 50-point threshold that separates growth and contraction.
The requirement of the state sector in 2017 amounted to 53.200 million, with an increase of approximately 5.400 million compared to 2016 despite the good performance of tax revenues which benefited, among other things, from the proceeds from the facilitated definition of tax disputes.
COEURÉ (ECB): ENOUGH WITH QE IN SEPTEMBER
Negative start to the year for the Italian bond market, which, amid thin volumes, is dealing not only with the start of the next electoral campaign, but also with the possibility, raised by Central Bank board member Benoit Coeuré, that the Qe can close as early as September.
Interviewed by the Chinese financial newspaper Caixin Global, Coeuré maintained that "there are reasonable possibilities that the extension of bond purchases established in the autumn could be the last".
THE SPREAD RISES TO 164. SPAIN WITH SPAIN AT 50 POINTS
Coeuré's words weighed on the sector of government bonds in the Eurozone, in particular on BTPs. In this context, the Italian 2,1-year rate closed in the 2,009% area, its highest since the end of October, from 2017% at the last close of 19. The spread with the same maturity of the Bund was also at its highest since 164 October , which closed at 159 basis points from 29 as at 50 December. The yield differential between Italian and Spanish government bonds on the ten-year segment also rose to 47 basis points from XNUMX basis points at the last close, considered the barometer of Italian political risk.
The syndicated issue of a new ten-year bond by Ireland is arriving on the primary, which this afternoon appointed a pool of dealers for this purpose. Dublin aims to raise 3-4 billion euros, which would cover around a quarter of this year's funding needs.
UNIPOL SHINES, THE CHAIN IS SHORTENING
Fireworks at the beginning of the year in Piazza Affari for Unipol (+3,25% with volumes more than double the average). Already in the last month of 2017, the stock was at the center of advances on the forthcoming shortening of the chain of control and on the sale of Unipol Banca (suspected for the Bper purchase). Traders are wondering if a provision contained in the Budget Law which limits the use of member loans to cooperatives could have an impact on the ownership structure of the holding company, whose main shareholders are coops. But the confirmation of the "outperform" recommendation by Mediobanca with a target price of 4,88 euro also contributed.
IN 2017 2 MILLION CARS SOLD IN ITALY. FCA +1,7%
Among the positive titles, Fiat Chrysler (+1,7%) also stands out, weak in the morning (-2,3%) in line with the slowdown in the European sector, protagonist of an exploit in the final thanks to the push arriving from Wall Street.
With the Stock Exchange closed, the Italian data on December registrations arrived: 121.100 cars, -3,17% compared to December 2016, during which 125.062 were registered. But in the period January-December 2017 the DMV registered a total of 1.970.497 cars, with a variation of +7,92% compared to the period January-December 2016.
The other four-wheeled values are recovering. Ferrari -0,2% from -2,5% at the opening, Brembo -1,8% from -4%. Cnh Industrial is on positive ground: +0,4%, from -1,6%. the Seaport Global Sec broker strengthened its Buy rating, bringing the target price to 13,30 euros from the previous 12 euros.
MONDADORI TOWARDS A THREE-WAY PACT IN FRANCE
Mondadori is among the best stocks today with a jump of 6,2% to 2,20 euros on the wave of rumors of an upcoming three-way agreement in France between Lagardère, Marie Claire and the transalpine newspapers (including Closer) which make headed to Segrate. The ultimate goal is to list the newco on the Paris Stock Exchange. This morning Banca Akros promoted the recommendation to Buy from Neutral.
MEDIOBANCA LEADER IN M&A
The banks defend themselves. Unicredit +0,8%, Intesa -0,5%. Mediobanca (-0,69%) was the financial advisor with the most presence on the market in 2017, having followed 30 deals for 74,25 billion dollars, including Luxottica-Essilor and Prysmian-General Cable. They are followed at a distance by Goldman Sachs with operations for 48,26 billion and Credit Suisse for 37,25 billion. To find other Italians in the standings you have to go down to 16th place with Unicredit (2,68 billion), followed by Banca Imi eighteenth (2,49 billion).
Among the other institutions, Banca Carige +2%, which will not be able to fall below 11,17% of Common Equity Tier 1 during 2018, as established by the Supervision of the ECB. Creval -3,5%. Profit taking for Banca Ifis (-3,6%).
SUPER HIGHWAY RATES. SIAS+1%
Rebounds on the wave of Wall Street Stmicroelectronics (+1,3% from -1,4%). Sales on utilities: Italgas -1,8%, Enel -0,5%. Atlantia -0,4% despite the average 1,5% increase in tolls for the sections managed by Autostrade per l'Italia, against an analyst estimate of +1%. Meanwhile Madrid has authorized Hochtief's counter bid on Abertis.
Sias +1%. On the motorways of the Gavio group the increases are 3%, also in this case, more than expected.
FALCK DOESN'T STOP. BOUNCE TREVI
Among the medium/small caps, Falck Renew + 5,2%, at 2,28 euros, marks new multi-year highs, on levels not seen since 2010. Reno de Medici and Trevi took off (+12%). Astaldi +5%, Technoinvestments +2%.
