It slows down but continues anyway the advance of the banks in Piazza Affari. It is the credit sector that allows the list to Milano + 0,36% to lead the ranking of the markets of the Old Continent again this morning, however held back pending the decisions of the central banks on the inflation front. But the prospect of rate hikes has revived interest in the money industry after years of hibernation. And so the market blesses the Unicredit buyback, approved by the assembly, as well as the prospects of Bpm bank, awarded this morning by the Buy of Banca Intesa analysts. And fly Fineco, on its eighth day of up.
Mps towards the ok for the capital increase
But the most awaited appointment, the real revenge after difficult years, is scheduled for the afternoon. In a few hours, the most awaited Palio will start in the heart of Siena, just three years after the long break imposed by the pandemic. A thousand days punctuated by multiple capital increases burned in the extraordinary story of capital destruction that has invested Monte Paschi Bank. At adjusted values, i.e. which consider the significant capital increases that have taken place, MPS title which on the Stock Exchange, after the recent increases today is around 37 euro cents on 12 October 2007, reached a maximum of 7.932,39 euro. Every single share of Monte dei Paschi di Siena in this period therefore lost just under 8 thousand euros.
A disaster, in short, which thecapital increase which today will be approved by the shareholders' meeting, among which the Ministry of the Economy stands out, with a strong 64,23 percent stake: a capital injection of 2,5 billion which, among other things, will be used to finance ( 800 million) the voluntary and incentivized redundancy of 3.500 employees who will thus be able to count on a contribution slide of up to 7 years, during which they will maintain the current welfare conditions.
The future of MPS
Thanks to this slimming treatment, the CEO Luigi Lovaglio, who arrived in Siena last February on behalf of the Minister of the Economy, plans to bring the bank back on the ground of operational normality: A smaller group, but capable of staying on the market as suggested by the recent half-year report which highlighted how Monte, against a net profit of only 27 million euro, can count on a high liquidity position and double-digit growth in gross operating income.
With this objective, Lovaglio proceeded at a brisk pace. After cashing the renegotiation of the terms of the exit from the capital of the public hand, which took place between the European Dg Comp and the Italian government, which he brought forward without indicating a certain date for the commitment to sell the majority stake in Monte, the managing director of MPS sold before the summer break 900 million euros of non-performing loans (Npe) and launched an articulated tour of the Italian provinces to explain the details of the plan to employees, based on annual savings of 270 million in terms of labor costs.
Positive prospects for the increase, but beware of the weather
Now, however, the X hour has struck. The obvious yes of the assembly will set in motion the guarantee consortium led, with the role of joint global coordinator and joint bookrunner, by Bank of America, Citi, Credit Suisse and Mediobanca, which have supported Monte dei Paschi since 23 June. To these were added, last August, Santander, Barclays, Société Generale and the German Stifel Europe Bank, which will have the role of joint bookrunner. A war machine that will have to help Lovaglio find the 900 million missing, taking for granted the subscription by the Treasury (1,6 billion).
The most encouraging signs have so far come from Soul Holding, commercial partner of the Siena institute and by Axa, the insurance shareholder already present in the capital. The respective suppliers of managed savings and insurance policies to customers of the Sienese network, ready to pay an amount up to one third of the "private" 900 million needed by MPS in exchange for a strategic review of their contracts, expiring in 2030 and 2027. Other shareholders, such as Generali, will probably not back down in the face of requests from the Treasury.
In short, the prospects are positive. But you have to take into accountthe time factor. Ideally, the increase should be completed on November 12, two months from today, in order to allow staff exits to be financed, which in turn must be definitively completed by November 30. This is why in Siena the words of Giorgia Meloni's economic adviser, Maurizio Leo, were regarded with concern. Questioned by Bloomberg, Leo advised to postpone the operation capital increase by Mps: “It's a difficult time and it's better to wait for the new government. The Monte dei Paschi operation is an important one, which must protect both jobs and a strategic asset for the Italian economy”. But a new delay for Rocca Salimbeni, which has paid dearly over the years subordination of the bank to politics, certainly not a good way to look at post-election Italy.
