A Bank of America research relaunched this morning by Financial Times reveals that over the past decade, US companies in ETF portfolios have made at least a quarter of their profits from trade with China. "It will be very difficult - concludes the Bofa report - for the problems of the Chinese economy to remain confined to China".
HONG KONG LOSES 2,2%, ELECTIONS IN TOKYO
The new chapter in the saga of Evergrande, the real estate giant weighed down by 305 billion in debt, should be read in this context. This morning the Hong Kong Stock Exchange (-2,2%) suspended trading on the shares of group companies without any reason. An article of Global Times, a newspaper close to the party, then announced the sale of 51% of the company that takes care of real estate services for 5,1 billion dollars. To buy is another Chinese real estate, the Hopson group.
The Chinese squares will remain closed until Thursday for the Golden Week festivities, the Chinese August 1,4th. The Korean Stock Exchange is also on holiday today. Tokyo down (-31%): the new premier Fumio Kishida has called the general elections for XNUMX October.
OSLO HYDROELECTRIC EXPORT STOP, GAS RUNS
The increase in raw materials favors Sydney (+1%): the Bloomberg Commodity index rises for the third consecutive session (the eighth out of nine) and reaches new highs for the period.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of New Zealand is expected to proceed with its first rate hike since 2014 on Wednesday.
Thus begins another week conditioned by energy problems. The gas rally continues: the reference future is up 2%.
COAL RISES TO HIGHEST, OIL STABLE
Coal futures related to the Australian port of Newcastle gained 25% last week, to a new all-time high, as Chinese demand pressured them to weather a winter that may be remembered for its dire electricity shortages. The situation in India is even worse, where coal stocks could run out as early as Friday.
Meanwhile, a new alarm is coming from the North: in Norway the levels of water reserves have been at their lowest for over a decade and the operator of the Statnett networks has informed traders that there are not enough stocks to send energy to the United Kingdom or Germany.
The price of oil has not yet registered these tensions: the WTI is down by 0,5%, at 75,5 dollars a barrel, while the Brent trades at 78,99 dollars (-0,3%).
OPEC+ SUMMIT: 800 THOUSAND BARRELS MORE (MAYBE)
Markets are confident that tonight's OPEC+ videoconference meeting could increase supply to 800 barrels starting in November, also anticipating the 400 increase expected for December. According to several analysts, increases of less than 600 barrels per day would only push crude oil prices up to $90. Meanwhile, US shale oil producers are holding back: they say we are unable to increase current production.
GOLD FLAT, DOLLAR DOWN
Flat gold at $1.760. The other macro data showed little change: 1,47-year Treasury Notes at 1,159%, two basis points less than at the last closing. Euro dollar settling at 1, from -XNUMX% last week.
Wall Street closed in positive territory on Friday on the news of the anti-Covid drug developed by Merck.
US JOB DATA COMING, FED LOSES HAWKS
The surge in energy will weigh on the choices of central banks, conditioned by the race of inflation. The most important appointment ahead of the November Fed meeting dedicated to tapering will be the publication of US jobs data on Friday.
But the spotlight this time is also on the internal balance of the US central bank. In mid-October, the resignations of two governors, Robert Kaplan and Eric Rosengren, guilty of having operated on the markets (something expressly prohibited by the statute) will take effect. The Hawks lose two top board members as the Democratic left's barrage against President Jerome Powell grows. A campaign poisoned by the decision of the left not to vote on the Biden plan on infrastructure, agreed with a part of the Republicans, if the 3.500 trillion dollar reform plan is not proceeded in parallel.
TODAY THE EUROGROUP, SPOTLIGHT ON THE ITALIAN VOTE
In Europe today the Eurogroup dedicated in particular to expensive bills is being held, with the presence of Christine Lagarde and the Italian member of the board Fabio Panetta. The Commission is preparing its own strategy to deal with the emergency in the months to come, but also to work in the coming weeks on a structural plan which envisages common interventions in the face of other crises that could occur in the future.
On the Italian front, the examination of the electoral results will be held tonight.
AT PIAZZA AFFARI THE GENERALI TENDER OFFER FOR CATTOLICA STARTS
The takeover bid by Generali on Cattolica Assicurazioni will get underway in Piazza Affari.
Two hottest fronts: the Nadef associated with the construction site of the budget maneuver and the take-off of Ita, expected in the middle of the month. The binding deadline for offers for the Alitalia brand will expire today.
AT WALL STREET ON GM DAY
On Wall Street, while awaiting the start of the earnings season, the focus is on the meeting with the General Motors market.
Awaiting the decisions of Altria, which could decide the sale of its stake in the beer giant Anheuser Busch.
Meanwhile, a new scandal stirs the waters of politics: it is the publication of the Pandora papers, from which emerge dozens of financial transactions to evade taxes involving characters such as Tony Blair, political leaders and rulers such as King Abdullah of Jordan but also personalities of entertainment and sport.
