Triumphant day for the European Stock Exchanges which celebrated Wednesday evening's statements by the US President, Barack Obama, who said he was confident of being able to find an agreement by Christmas to avoid the "fiscal cliff".
Wall Street is more cautious, despite the upward revision of GDP in the third quarter (+2,7%). The declaration of the Republican speaker of the House John Boehmer contributes to slowing down (but not stopping) the bull's race: the discussions between Republicans and the White House on an agreement to avoid the 'fiscal cliff', the so-called fiscal cliff, "have not made significant progress." And again: "I had a clear and frank conversation with President Barack Obama and I hope that we can go ahead with a productive discussion" but "'I am disappointed with the current state of the negotiations".
On Wall Street, the Dow Jones rose by 0,28% to 13.038,40 points, the Nasdaq rose by 0,68% to 3.012,53 points and the S&P 500 rose by 0,43% to 1.417,31 points.
In Europe, on the contrary, all the stock exchanges rose with the superstar Piazza Affari achieving double the rise of the other Stock Exchanges: the FtseMib index gained 2,8%. London closed up 1,1%, Paris +1,5%, Frankfurt +0,7%.
ASIA
The Tokyo Stock Exchange closed the week with a robust rise +0,83%. But, more than the indications coming from the US, the expansive measures taken by the outgoing government (the equivalent of 10,5 billion dollars) to stimulate the economy two weeks before the vote count. In short, the contenders are challenging each other with quantitative easing in an attempt to weaken the yen.
The Hong Kong stock market also rose +0,63%. The most undervalued Stock Exchange remains Shanghai: the price/earnings ratio is equal to 1 times the minimum since 9. The average of the last ten years is 1997 times.
Gold also recovered to 1729 dollars an ounce after Wednesday's massive sell-off. The yellow metal thus confirms the inverse correlation with the dollar: the strengthening of the US currency corresponds to weak gold and vice versa.
AMERICA
On the macro front, the data on US GDP marks a growth of 2,7% in the third quarter, slightly lower than the expectations of economists who indicated an average of +2,8%. The disappointment came from consumption, which grew by only 1,4%, against the 1,9% expected. On balance, November for US department stores, from Macy's to Bloomogdale, marks a slight decline.
In line with expectations, data on the US labor market: last week, new applications for unemployment benefits fell to 393, from 416 the previous week.
In the crosshairs of Wall Street, a historic brand and a recent but already fallen star. Tiffany plunges down 8%. The jewelry company presented lower-than-expected quarterly data and lowered its revenue and profit growth estimates for the current year.
Groupon turns up 1,1% which lengthens yesterday's 11% leap. In recent days, rumors have been circulating about the possibility of his replacement with a manager with greater solidity in managing the business. After the stock has lost four-fifths of its value since its listing on Wall Street, Groupon's board is meeting today to decide whether to confirm it or not.
Meanwhile, the specter of Argentina's default is receding. The New York Court of Appeals has suspended the order which required the payment of 1,3 billion to Buenos Aires bondholders. We will talk about it again after the February 27 hearing.
SOVEREIGN DEBT/ITALY
The overall European Stoxx 600 index rose to a 17-month high. Another brilliant day for the periphery of the euro zone thanks to the loan agreement with Spanish banks and the positive outcome of the BTP auction.
The decisive recovery of thethe Italy-Germany spread than on the 2-year maturity (185 bps) and on the 10-year maturity (314 bps) is approaching the minimum values of last March respectively in the 150 and 280 bps area
The surge in Btp prices in recent sessions has found constant support in thedecidedly positive outcome of the auctions. Today 5,982 billion (on the highs of the 4-6 billion range) of 5-year BTPs were placed with rates down to 3,23% (3,80% in October, 3,36% secondary yesterday) and 3 billion BTPs at 10 years with rates down to 4,45% (4,92% in October, 4,56% secondary yesterday).
Taxi therefore lower than those expressed by the secondary market e lows since October/November 2010.
Only in mid-November was the yield on the 10-year BTP at 5,1%, today it is below 4,5%: a year ago Monti took over the executive with yields on all maturities, from the Bot to the thirty-year Btp, exceeding 7%.
BUSINESS PLACE
In the morning, a report by Exane advised customers to focus on medium-sized banks because they will be the first to benefit from a rebound in the Italian economy. The market: followed the indication. Lead the race there Banca Popolare dell'Emilia Romagna +9,9% followed by Ubi + 7,5%.
The institute has reached an agreement with the trade union representatives - Fisac/Cgil excluded - which provides for a reduction in the workforce of 650 units and savings on the cost of labor when fully operational of approximately 100 million euros gross per year, mainly already achieved since 2013. The reduction in workforce, less than half of the 1.578 employees requested at the outset, will take place through access, primarily on a voluntary basis, to pension treatment or to the national income support fund.
Union developments in sight also for the Banca Popolare di Milano +8,2%. Today a decisive round is expected between the parties, which are still very distant: yesterday Bpm presented the unions with a calculation on what the savings would be if the requests of the workers' representatives were accepted: 30-35 million compared to the 70 set as goal from the bank.
Banco Popular rebounded after yesterday's fall caused by Moody's warning: the stock rose by 4,8%. Intesa Sanpaolo rose by 4,1% and Unicredit +4,4%. Financial and insurance companies also rose. Generali salt by 2,35%,Azimuth + 3,4% Fondiaria Sai+ 4,4% Unipol + 1,9%.
On the shields too Ansaldo Sts +6,2%: yesterday the German Siemens announced the acquisition of the railway signaling activities of Invensys at very high multiples, much higher than those of the subsidiary of Finmeccanica. Finmeccanica rose by 6,1%.
Telecom Italy gained 3,9%. In the utilities group, it climbed more strongly Enel Green Power +4,2%, increases in line with the index for Enel + 2,4%. Eni earned 2,1%.
The SEA IPO road is all uphill. Yesterday evening, a few hours after the conclusion of the placement scheduled for 13pm today, purchase orders were just under 40% of the book. The club is hoping for a final backlash but no hypotheses are excluded, including the renunciation of the landing at Piazza Affari. A management meeting with the placing banks, led by Mediobanca, is scheduled for the day. It is a question of evaluating both the quantity of bookings and the price offered, which is particularly important for the Province of Milan, which in the placement should sell its 14% of Sea with the aim of avoiding breaching the stability pact.
