MILAN RECOVERS THE COUPON EFFECT IN HALF
FIAT HIGHLIGHTS, THE POPULAR BANCO FLIES
Positive start to the financial week in Europe. The indices are all with the plus sign (Paris and London +0,5%, Frankfurt +0,8%) with the exception of Madrid -1,08% and Milano -0,55%. But the data from Piazza Affari is distorted by the effect of the detachment of dividends from a large number of companies (5,5 billion) which account for 1,8%. The trend slowed down after the statements of the German government spokesman who confirmed Berlin's opposition to Eurobonds but regained momentum after the results of the German auction (2,9 billion 1-year bonds sold).
Few changes at the beginning of the week for the spread between Italian btps and German bunds: the difference is 436 points (438,4 on Friday at the end of the day). The yield is at 5,8%.
There are several ideas on the list, both on the industrial front and among financial stocks.
First of all, the auto sector in Europe it rises by 1,3%. Among the leading themes Renault +4,6% after UBS added the stock to its key call list. But Fiat runs even faster, growing by 5,85%. Bernstein raised the "outperform" rating from "market perform" with the target price maintained at 5 euros. According to the broker, the group has the option to buy the rest of Chrysler thus securing its cash flows. The share is also cheap and a possible transaction with the American subsidiary could represent an upside point.
Finmeccanica also shines among the blue chips +0,43% together with the subsidiary Ansaldo +2,83%. Finmeccanica could be awarded a maxi order for the modernization of the United States railway system. If Finmeccanica wins the tender, the sale of Ansaldo Breda and Ansaldo STS would be put on standby. Impregilo rises by 3,9% following rumors that the company could distribute an extraordinary dividend of 300 million euros thanks to the collection of 355 million euros from Acerra and the sale of the subsidiary Fisia, for which negotiations would have arrived at an advanced stage.
The move by Impregile it responds to the provocations of Salini, the Roman entrepreneur who harshly criticized the management of the company, requested a new board, and after having rounded up more than 29% of the company aims to become CEO of Impregilo. In view of the July 12 meeting, called to renew the top management, Salini also proposed Claudio Costamagna, a former Goldman Sachs banker, for the position of chairman of the new board, should his list be the winner.
Among the bank stocks the Oscar goes to Banco Popolare soars by 12,17% to 0,98 euro already suspended due to excessive increases. Bank of Italy gave the go-ahead for the adoption of internal models for measuring credit and market risks starting next 30 June. This will make it possible to bring the core tier 1 coefficient to 9,4% and to meet the capital requirements dictated by the EBA, thus avoiding having to resort to the conversion of the "soft convertible" bond.
The news pleases analysts. Société Générale brought the rating to "hold" from "sell", Bofa-Merrill Lynch raised it to "buy" from "neutral" having already discounted the stock the "dilution" risk linked to the possible conversion but lowered the target price to 1,5 from 1,7 euros to incorporate higher macroeconomic risks. Upgrade also for Exane to "outperform" from "underperform" with a target price of 1,4 euros. The broker raises the 2012-2014 Eps estimates by 14% in the light of overcoming the possible effects of the conversion of the "soft convertible".
Ubi +7,48% rebounds after falling last Friday to its all-time low of 2,188 euros: the stock is traded at 2,26 euros, net of today's ex-dividend of 0,05 euros.
Following the announcement of the Bank of Italy's go-ahead for the measurement system of the risk adopted by Banco Popolare, it becomes more probable that the Supervisory Authority will also say yes to the similar request presented by Ubi Banca. Since the beginning of the year, Ubi has lost 29%. This morning Exane confirmed the underperform recommendation, the target price was cut to 2,7 euros.
Premafin slips to new lows for the year, not far from the lowest level ever reached at the end of 2011. The shareholders' meeting of the holding company controlling Fondiaria-Sai and Milano Assicurazion, on the proposal of the board of directors this morning, will be called tomorrow to approve an update of the works on 12 June. In addition to the approval of the 2011 financial statements, the meeting agenda also included the approval of the capital increase reserved for Unipol, for the integration project. The creditor banks, according to a note from Premafin, have confirmed their willingness to finalize the debt restructuring agreements but only after an agreement has been reached on the swaps of the integration with Unipol.
