The ship of Mario Monti has set sail in a rough sea: the insidious winds of sovereign debt blow from all directions, alternating with sudden calms that precede storms more dangerous than a tropical hurricane. Under the raging bad weather, the main European stock exchanges fluctuated several times yesterday, taking their cue from the performance of government bonds in the euro area. The markets continue to wonder about the effective ability of the ECB to be able to reduce yields through purchases on the market.
FORECAST. The Monti effect continues to have a beneficial effect on Piazza Affari (+0,7% at the close), but the yield of ten-year BTP it underwent very strong fluctuations and closed at 6,98%, 6 basis points less than yesterday. The spread with the Bund it is at 518 (it had fallen well below 500 points) . An area of strong pressure on government bonds gravitates over Europe which by now involves the triple A countries, with the exception (for now) of Germany: France, Austria, Finland, Holland itself. The shower of bank sales on Wall Street does not bode well. But European futures signal the possibility of a modest initial rebound after a difficult day. Ftse/Mib futures are best valued near the open.
ITALY-GREECE, DIFFERENT FACES. Maria Cannata, head of the management of the Italian public debt, confessed that he "suffers a lot" from the fact that the media from all over the world, starting from those of the Bel Paese, continue to put together Italy and Greece, very different countries. Martin Feldstein, the economist who worked with Ronald Reagan, also thinks so and is one of Barack Obama's advisors. The sooner Greece leaves the euro area, says Feldstein, the better for everyone. “Italy is much better off – says the Eurosceptic Feldstein – and has every chance of increasing its growth rate”. But woe to you if Mario Draghi gives in to pressure to buy more debt securities. “Better let the markets have the floor, otherwise they will take their revenge”.
FITCH RISK REPORT EUROPE FOR US
BANK STOCKS FALL: MORGAN STANLEY -8%
Power of a report. It was enough for the Fitch rating agency to publish a study on the potential losses of US banks in the event of a eurozone default for a hitherto neutral session to be tinged with the colors of fear. Within an hour the Dow Jones lost more than 120 points to close at 11906 (-1,6%) on the wave of the losses of the financial giants: Goldman Sachs – 4.16%, JPMorgan – 3.76%. Bank of America – 3.75%. Hardest hit is Morgan Stanley – 7.97%.
But what is written so incendiary in the report? Fitch believes that if a quick and orderly solution to the European sovereign debt problem is not found, the prospects for the US credit system will worsen. US banks have reduced their direct exposure to sovereign debt and are now much better capitalized than in 2008/09, "but the risk of a systemic shock that could alter this forecast is growing exponentially".
Also in Asia the session was dominated by the Fitch report: heavy losses of banks starting with Standard & Chartered Bank -3,4%. The Nikkei 225 index gains 0,2, Hong Kong's Hang Seng is worse -0,26%: Beijing reiterated that it has no intention of easing the tightening on rates.
TIMES TIGHT FOR AFTER IT WILL GO TO INTESA
MAIOLI TAKES SHARE, PARMESAN SOLUTION
I don't have the time to archive the total ministers and the chapter opens, no less exciting (indeed...) of the total agreement (+0,66% to 1,226 euros). Yesterday, even before resignation of the new minister Corrado Passera and Professor Elsa Fornero, vice president of the supervisory committee, the replacement machine has been triggered. A press release from the Mi-To bank has already made the transfer of powers to the deputy general manager Marco Morelli official as required by the statute. Meanwhile, the big voters, Giuseppe Guzzetti and Giovanni Bazoli, have already started the search for a successor. In pole position are Ariberto Fassati, a point of reference for Crédit Agricole in Italy together with Giampiero Maioli, the number one of Cariparma. Chances also have Giovanni Gorno Tempini, CEO of Cassa Depositi e Prestiti, a Bazolian from the early days and Victor Massiah himself, CEO of Ubi, another discovery by the Brescian professor. The squad also includes the name of Pietro Modiano, at the time the protagonist of the (lost) duel with Passera, and Vittorio Colao.
The replacement of the new Minister of Labor is less problematic: the bank's statute provides that in the event that a member of the supervisory board dies, he will be replaced "by the first non-elected member on the list to which the departed member belonged", in this case the joint list of the Compagnia di San Paolo and the Cariplo Foundation.
Thus it is Guido Ghisolfi or, if he does not have the legal, regulatory or statutory requirements of Fornero, the next candidate on the list, Fabrizio Gnocchi.
MOEBIUS: ITALY WILL PAY THE DEBTS
BUT FOR 2012 BETTER THE EMERGING
"In my opinion there is no doubt that Italy will pay all its debts." Word of Mark Moebius. American, resident in Singapore for years, 75 years old, Moebius is the charismatic president of Templeton Emerging Markets Group, which in recent years has conquered a significant share of savings in Italy, with 360 private customers who subscribed to Templeton funds for 28 billion dollars (it was 4 billion in 2008).
"With its back against the wall, faced with the choice of letting Italy go into default or printing money - is Moebius's reasoning - the ECB will choose the second path because it is less painful for everyone, not just for Italians". Starting with Germany which "cannot afford to return to the mark on pain of risking the competitiveness of its companies being strangled". Templeton expects a flow of investments towards the fastest growing areas of the world, i.e. towards emerging markets: "we are convinced that the best investment opportunities are in companies that sell consumer goods in emerging markets".
ANNOUNCED: BPM INCREASE, WE ARE CONFIDENT
MEANWHILE THE SHARE SLIDES TO 0,31: -12% EURO
“We are confident” declares Filippo Annunziata, chairman of the Bpm supervisory board. “The initial data are comforting”. On the eve of the closing of the 800 million capital operation, a little national optimism does not hurt. Especially if, as happened yesterday, sales are raining down on the list: -13,1%, share at 0,31 almost in line with the price of newly issued shares. Precisely the sales of these titles, currently being assigned, is at the origin of the collapse.
The impact of the announcement of the capital increase and the cleanup operation was instead absorbed by Unicredit +1,42%, despite the fact that Moody's has decided to place the votes of Piazza Cordusio under observation for a possible downgrade: the individual rating "C-", the long-term rating "A2" and the short-term rating "Prime-1", in addition to the rating on the senior debt and that on the junior debt.
CHRYSLER ACCELERATES IN THE USA, FIAT CLOSES TERMS
FINMECCANICA DOWN. BUY BACK FOR ANSALDO STS
Up for Fiat (+1,04% to 4,098 euros) and Fiat Industrial (+2,34% to 6,34 euros) even if the Lingotto sold 10,2% in Europe in October less than a year ago. The market share dropped to 6,6% (7,2% in October 2010). But that's not all: “the crisis in Europe will also affect sales in 2012” said Sergio Marchionne. The Lingotto, therefore, presses the accelerator in the USA. Yesterday the announcement of 1,7 billion of investments for the new Jeep-Suv to be developed in Toledo, Ohio, with the creation of 1.100 jobs. Meanwhile, the Fiat experience at Termini Imerese is coming to an end.
Finmeccanica's attempt to rebound failed, closing the session down by 3,53% to 3,448. On the other hand, the recovery of Ansaldo Sts continues (+0,28% to 7,19 euro). Merit of the possible sale of the jewel to restore the accounts of the holding company. Or the launch of the buyback plan that took off just yesterday.
THE MYTHS IN THE BUSINESS PLACE: ARMANI DOESN'T DEPRESS SAFILO
BUFFON CHARGES ZUCCHI'S RESCUE
How much is the call of the divine George worth? Luxottica gained 1,46% after announcing that it had signed a letter of intent with the Armani group preparatory to the stipulation of a ten-year licensing agreement on "market conditions" effective January 2013, 10. Safilo, which this morning had communicated that his contract with Armani will no longer be renewed, he nevertheless scored a +XNUMX%, in a market relieved by the lack of uncertainty.
How much is the legendary Gigi worth? Buffon complied with the rules by notifying Consob that his shareholding in Zucchi post capital increase has risen over 19%. And on the Stock Exchange, the rise in the share has deducted 20 percent.
