“A few months ago we believed that things would go a little better – commented the head of the Observatory Luca Dondi Dell'Orologio – instead we found that the limit point has been exceeded and that trades will drop again in 2013”. From over 600 sales in 2010, it drops to 580 in 2011, 565 in 2012 and will probably reach 530 next year. “We are returning to the levels of the 90s – adds the researcher – we ate the whole expansion phase of the 2000s".
The real estate crisis on the other hand, it reflects the general crisis in consumption, with families impoverished and worried about spending, not being able to deal with debt, of having “the estimates doubled from one moment to the next and consequently taxes. The beating of the Imu has had a further impact on an already tried sector”. Yet the desire, even the "intention" to buy a house on the part of the population remains unchanged: "It is a very widespread desire in percentage terms - adds Dondi - but 80% of those who declare themselves interested in buying also say they have to take out a loan and therefore choose not to buy”. As those who decide to invest in real estate do so more and more and only if they have the money in their pocket: “in the last six months, sales have dropped by 20% while mortgages have dropped by 30%, which means that a share is bought in cash. And this is because, even in a recessionary context, there are those who still see the house as a safe haven, a more reliable investment than all the rest”.
Among the 13 large cities examined by Nomisma, the most affected by the crisis appear to be Bologna and Florence, the heart of Italy where the maximum prices, in the centre, collapsed by 8,6% and 6,8% respectively. “In Emilia – adds Dondi – we must also take into account the earthquake, which will not help a positive price trend. On the other hand, it will partially get the construction sector back on track”.
One of the most significant indicators of the brick crisis is the gap between the asking prices and those obtained: on new houses the difference is 13% in Naples, over 10% in Rome, Palermo and Venice, 9% or a little less in Florence, Catania, Bologna and Bari. In second-hand vehicles, the negative record belongs to Palermo with 16,4% followed by Bari at 15,2% . The average sales times are always more than six months.
Only the top prices remain perched on their peaks, those of beautiful and exclusive objects the prerogative of the most attractive cities: in Rome you can spend 20 thousand euros per square meter for a house, 19 thousand euros in Milan, 17 thousand euros in Venice, 14 thousand euros in Naples, 10.500 euros in Florence. The same goes for vacation areas. “In a generally negative picture – says Dondi – the most popular destinations, such as Cortina or Forte dei Marmi, are still able to obtain significant figures”.
If the housing market cries, the corporate one doesn't laugh: “Especially in cities like Bologna – adds the researcher – the situation is really blocked. We expected a different development, a positive fallout after the expansion of Milan and Rome. Instead the investors do not come. They prefer other territories, such as Verona or Bergamo. There are auctions of beautiful and important objects that go deserted. These are situations that should pose serious questions to this city, in terms of infrastructure and services".
Finally, the future of real estate funds is also quite worrying. “Today many private social security institutions – concludes the researcher – have moved their assets into funds. It is an operation that simplifies management, but which reaches maturity and if the market does not recover, there are great risks. From here to 10 years we could have nasty surprises ".
