After the deep crisis linked to the pandemic, the Real Estate Market European, and Italian in particular, continues on the road to recovery. In fact, 2022 will close with turnover and rising prices. But be careful to think that the crisis is definitely behind us. War, pandemic and inflation create many uncertainties for the future. This is what emerges fromEuropean Outlook 2023, presented by Scenari Immobiliari at the opening of the thirtieth Forum dedicated to the sector and underway in Santa Margherita Ligure.
European Real Estate Market: 2022 numbers and 2023 estimates
Speaking in numbers and percentages, the European real estate market is starting to close 2022 with a turnover up almost 10% (+9,9% to 1.163 billion euros), of which 139 billion in Italy (+9,9%).
Positive forecasts, albeit decreasing, also for 2023, with a +3,9% to 1.208 billion for Europe and 148 billion for Italy (+6,5%), second in growth after Germany (+10,7% to 382 billion).
An important contribution to the growth of global turnover comes from positive change in prices, to which the rise in inflation in recent months has contributed.
In residential sector it is estimated that at the end of 2022 house prices in the five most industrialized countries will register an average growth of 4,5%, while the estimate for the following year is set at an average annual growth of 6,5%.
Real estate: transactions and investments
In terms of residential real estate transactions, after the exceptional performance of 2021 (750.000 trades), Italy should close 2022 with a slight decline (-5,3% to 710.000). For 2023, a further drop of 5,6% is expected to around 670.000 sales.
In the first semester the total investment volume in Europe it stood at 157 billion (86 billion in the first quarter and 71 in the second), while over the 12 months in June the volume of investments reached the record figure of 387,3 billion (+35%).
As regards the various sectors, according to forecasts, the logistics will close the current year with a growth of 2,9%, for the retail average growth of 0,8% is expected in 2022 and +4,3% in 2023. In residential an increase in prices is expected, but a negative change for sales in 2023 (drops between 2,6% and 5,6%), also because it is expected that the increase in mortgage rates and the effects of inflation on wages do not favor the impulse to buy.
