After the dry defeat remedied at thegeneral meetingWill Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone and Leonardo Del Vecchio take their revenge on Mediobanca and its CEO, Alberto Nagel, who inspired and supported the Lion's winning list? It is a hypothesis that has been circulating on the stock exchange and in the Milanese financial community since it was made the great challenge on Generali. And it is a more than plausible hypothesis. Above all, Del Vecchio cannot have invested so much money in Mediobanca to count for nothing, even if you have never clarified what his strategy really is. But, after the outcome of the Trieste shareholders' meeting and the extraordinary shareholder participation of more than 70%, climbing Piazzetta Cuccia is much less simple than it seemed until recently. Why? For at least three reasons:
1) because even in Piazzetta Cuccia, as happened yesterday in Trieste beyond any realistic expectation, the real referee is the market and so are the institutional funds, especially foreign ones, which won the battle of Generali together with Donnet and Mediobanca and which hold a good 40% in the Milanese bank;
2) because institutional funds - as we saw at the Trieste meeting - love stability and do not trust those who propose changes for reasons that appear mainly to be of power: these are the reasons for their determinant support for Donnet and Mediobanca and these are also the reasons why they have supported Nagel for some time, whose results and dividends they appreciate;
3) because grievances are not enough to form a majority and, despite the significant and costly equity investments acquired in Mediobanca by Del Vecchio, who is the first shareholder with 19%, and by Caltagirone, which has more than 3% in its portfolio and is ready to rise to 5%, the main private shareholders are far from having victory in Piazzetta Cuccia in their pocket and to acquire it - assuming that the ECB Supervisory Authority grants them the necessary authorizations - they will be forced to put their hands on their wallets again and perhaps to launch a takeover bid or to give up dreams of glory.
Del Vecchio and Caltagirone at the Mediobanca crossroads but have to deal with the market
It is true that Mediobanca, which capitalizes 8 billion euros on the Stock Exchange, costs less than Generali, which capitalizes 30 billion, but the current shares of Del Vecchio (19,4%) and Caltagirone (3,1%) are not enough to conquer it nor those of Benetton (2,1%) and other expensive investments are needed. Of course, whoever reaches the majority of Piazzetta Cuccia also influences Generali, where Mediobanca, net of the shares that it borrowed for yesterday's shareholders' meeting in Leone, holds about 13% and supports the new board led by Donnet, but the Milanese one remains an impervious path and since yesterday it has certainly been more difficult. Because the Trieste assembly represents an epochal event in its own way with the decisive mobilization of institutional funds and in particular of American ones: an unthinkable novelty before the Generali assembly and which must be greeted as a very encouraging fact for the economic and financial democracy also in Italy, although contradicted by the bad performance of Assogestioni, which only collected crumbs (1,9%) and was unable to win even a seat on the new board.
Therefore a highly probable challenge after the summer in Mediobanca but certainly more difficult than expected, unless some surprises arrive and he does not move alongside Del Vecchio and Caltagirone Unicredit. Conquest failed Bpm bank due to a perfidious leak of news, the bank in Piazza Gae Aulenti is still looking for a role on the Italian market, even if its CEO, Andrea Orcel, has so far flatly denied thinking of Piazzetta Cuccia.
Once the Generali battle has been archived, where however the Caltagirone list can act as a blocking minority and hinder extraordinary operations, other exciting challenges seem to await Italian finance, but the signal coming from Trieste is as surprising as it is clear: in the battles that count for the market really is there and it's ready to roar again.
