From too few doctors to too many doctors in a matter of years. This is the paradoxical fate that awaits Italian healthcare, at least according to the forecasts of the medical union Anaao Assomed.
An analysis of the retirement curves and the entry of new specialists trained between 2018 and 2025 shows that over 16 doctors will be missing in the short term. Today the NHS employs 105 specialists: of these, about half (52.500) will retire within the next six years, due to the 100 quota and the depletion of the baby boomer generation. To deal with this situation, some Regions have suggested using retired doctors, while the Ministry of Defense has already suggested employing military doctors in public facilities in Molise. Meanwhile, with the Calabria decree, the Minister of Health Giulia Grillo opens the doors of hospitals to postgraduates.
From 2026, however, the situation will reverse. For the following eight years, forecasts speak of a collapse in demand linked to the depletion of the demographic hump and the normalization of the retirement rate. The situation risks getting out of control if, as the yellow-green majority wants, the limited number of medical faculties will be abolished. The secretary general of Anaao, Carlo Palermo, told Il Sole 24 ore that "by increasing admissions to degree courses in Medicine and Surgery today, by 2031/32 we will have trained 10.500 doctors in Italy between specialization and general medicine course, against a total real requirement of around 6.500”. We will have so "a surplus of 4 specialists every year”. The waste of public money should reach five billion euros, given that about 250 thousand euros are spent on training each medical student, between universities and specialization schools.
In short, for many of the future doctors, after more than 10 years of training between degrees and specializations, only the doors of unemployment could open. Or, alternatively, of fleeing abroad.
