The first Meloni-branded finance company takes shape, with few resources compared to the many expected measures. There are about 30-32 billion on the plate, of which about 25 go to expensive bills and the extension of the cut in the tax wedge wanted by Draghi. And the rest? Among the hypotheses being studied by the executive, the elimination or reduction of VAT for bread, pasta and milk, a tax wedge at 3%, greater support for the family and the birth rate and the increase in the current tax credit thresholds from 30 to 35%. Among the other points in the 2023 Maneuver is the tightening of the Citizenship Income, more expensive e-commerce and the refinancing of the TV and decoder bonus. While some measures will have to wait, such as the hot pension dossier and the tax shield for the return of undeclared capital from abroad. Here are the latest news on Maneuver 2023 which will have to land on the CDM table next Monday.
Interventions on tax bills, tax wedge and flat tax
Confirmed the tax truce for folders up to 2015 with complete excerpt folders under one thousand euros. For folders up to 3 euros, the path identified would instead be that of a reduction of penalties and interest to 5% and an installment payment over five years.
A certainty of the maneuver will be the tax wedge cut, but by 3% instead of 2%, and which will account for 3,5 billion euros.
La flat tax at 15% it is extended. The beneficiaries will be VAT numbers and the self-employed with revenues of up to 85 thousand euros.
Measures against expensive bills
Against the dear bills, for the first quarter of 2023 (for now) the measures adopted by the Draghi government to support families are being renewed. Yes ai social bonuses for electricity and gas, but widening the audience to Isee income up to 15 thousand euros. To these are added the fuel discounts and bill and an increase in the tax credit with an increase in the rate (from 30 to 35%) on extra profits.
VAT zeroing on bread and milk among the novelties of the 2023 Maneuver
In addition to the discounts in the bill, a azzeramento dell'Iva for a year on essential goods such as pasta, bread e milk, and the 5% reduction on baby products, such as diapers, and feminine hygiene products, such as sanitary pads. For a cost of about half a billion.
Large family bonus
Then there is thesingle family allowance, which, as promised before the assembled Parliament, will be increased for the largest families. The doubling from 100 to 200 euros of the flat-rate contribution for families of 4 children and up is under consideration. More funds should also be allocated to families with twins: from January 2023 they will receive an extra 100 euros per month until they turn three. At the moment the single allowance remains modulated on the basis of the ISEE and still needs to be requested every year. However, the government is working on a new criterion based on the total income of the family to be divided by the number of children. A change that, however, will not come immediately.
Maneuver 2023 news: e-commerce tax, decoder bonus and web courses
Among the hypotheses which would have been discussed during the majority summit on the maneuver there would also be that of one home delivery tax (like Amazon) to support local shops.
The Ministry of Enterprise and Made in Italy would then put forward the proposal to refinance the TV bonuses and decoders with an allocation of 100 million euros for 2023. These are the two contributions for the purchase of TVs, after scrapping an old and non-compliant device, with the disbursement of a single contribution per household, equal to 20% spending within the limit of 100 euros and for the purchase of television sets without scrapping or decoders, with a contribution for households with Isee up to 20 thousand euros, 30 euros or the sale price if lower.
Still on the technological front, the web courses for minors: 3 million euros in the three-year period 2023-2025 for media and digital literacy and the protection of minors in the field of digital media.
The squeeze on Citizenship Income is coming
The Government has always been oriented towards a squeeze on Basic income, the flagship measure of the 5Stelle: it is necessary to ascertain that the recipients live in Italy and that they are not "employable", i.e. those who are technically unable to work.
Pensions towards "quota 103"
Then there is the pension chapter, but that will be discussed at a later time. The Government wants to prevent the return, from January 2023, of the Fornero law (released at age 67). We reason about odds 103 or 104 which provides for 41 years of contributions and at least 62 or 63 years of age to access the pension. The resource node remains. Already reconfirmed instead Woman option andSocial bee.
Fitch confirms Italy's rating, but sees recession
No surprise, Fitch confirmed the BBB rating to Italy and indicates for the future stable prospects in the evaluation of debt of the country. But he sees a recession coming next year due to a "strong deceleration" in Italy's economic growth starting from the fourth quarter "due to the energy shock triggered by the war in Ukraine".
The rating agency has revised its forecast upwards GDP growth for 2022 to 3,6% in light of stronger-than-expected data. The latest forecast for GDP growth is -0,4% in 2023 and 2,2% in 2024. For 2023, however, it forecasts a contraction of 0,4%, better than -0,7% previously forecast, but far from the +0,6% just indicated by the Government in Nadef, the Update note of the economics and finance document. For 2024 the estimate is +2,2%.
“Italy deficit at 4,9% in 2023, debt below 150%”. Fitch expects a report deficit/GDP for 2023 to 4,9% followed by 4,3% the following year, against 4.5% to 3.7% forecast by the Government, mainly "due to differences in the macroeconomic scenario".
