The worst case scenario was avoided: Emmanuel Macron, with 23,7% of the votes, won the right to participate in the ballot for the conquest of the Elysée, with a good probability of success against Marie Le Pen, stopped at 21,7%. For Macron, François Fillon (20.%) and Bemoit Hamon (5,8%) spoke out. Polls predict a success for the leader of En Marche with 62% of the votes against the leader of the Front National.
The markets can breathe a first sigh of relief, waiting for the final sprint. Macron's statement dispels the risk of a collapse of the euro and an irreversible crisis in the European Union. On the contrary, the candidate for the presidency promises a strong commitment to relaunching the Community of 28. Therefore, a vote in favor of the euro, of French debt securities (and consequently, for the BTPs) is looming. The vote galvanizes the stock markets: this time there was no surprise effect.
Not just Paris. The board of directors meets again on Thursday ECB. Mario Draghi, speaking in Washington, reiterated the need to continue the accommodating policy on the interest rate front. Confirmation of the choices of the Central Bank is therefore expected, which since April has reduced the purchases of securities on the market to 60 billion a month. But, as emerged from the ECB's economic bulletin, the distortions caused by QE are starting to make themselves felt: the shortage of some bonds, especially the German ones, is causing strong tensions on loans guaranteed by government bonds. There is no rush to anticipate the end of QE, scheduled for the end of the year, but the warning to the markets is clear: the reduction in purchases is destined to continue.
The Bank of Japan meeting dedicated to monetary policy choices will also be held on Thursday. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda's press conference is expected at the end.
Saturday 29 the Trump presidency turns XNUMX days. Not much has happened in this period of time, at least re-reading the electoral promises. The president, however, has promised a "historic" announcement on the taxman this week. It is difficult to know what it is, given that even Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin said he was in the dark. Instead, it is certain that an agreement between the White House and Congress on the budget must be reached by Friday, otherwise the financing of public administration expenses will be blocked.
In this context, according to forecasts, the US economy is in full swing. During the week, the data for the first quarter should signal an increase of 1,1% against the previous 2,1%.
Wall Street will be focused on examining the 194 quarterly reports due today through Friday. These include Mc Donald's, Chipotle, Lockheed Martin, Amazon, Microsoft and Twitter. The week for European companies was also intense. The accounts of Banco de Santander and Crédit Suisse (Wednesday 26), Total (Thursday) and Ubs (Friday) are scheduled.
“Debt has stabilized, but political risk weighs in”. This is how Economy Minister Pier Carlo Padoan commented on the downgrade of Italy's rating by Fitch from 'BBB+' to 'BBB', with a “stable” outlook. At the basis of the assessment, the international agency explained in a note, are the political risks for our country, weak growth and the delay in consolidating the accounts.
Today will be held the auction of ctz e btpei, followed on Wednesday by the issuance of 27-month Treasuries. The offer of medium and long-term bonds at the end of the month (including the new ten-year bond) is scheduled for Thursday XNUMX.
Today will be a coupon day for seven big names in Piazza Affari: the operation will lead to a technical drop of 0,49% at the opening on the Ftse Mib index. In fact, they will trade ex-dividends on the stock exchange Eni, which will detach the balance of the dividend for 2016 for 0,40 euro per share, Ferrari (0,635 euro), Banca Mediolanum (0,24 euro), Cnh Industrial (0,11 euros), Prysmian (0,43 euros), Recordati (0,35 euros) e Finecobank (0,28 euro) which in the following days will distribute the coupons relating to the past financial year to the shareholders. Outside the Ftse Mib they will detach the dividend among the others Piaggio (0,055 euros), De 'Longhi (0,80 euros) and Southern Highways (0,60 euro).
A week full of quarterly reports for Piazza Affari too: we start today with Fiat Chrysler and Tenaris; Thursday will be the turn of Cnh Industrial e stm. The meetings of Generali, Intesa San Paolo and Poste Italiane will be held on Thursday 28th. Friday will be Saipem's turn.
Spotlight on Atlantia. The CEO Giovanni Castellucci said that the leak of news on the possible transaction with Abertis has led to an acceleration of the process and that the acquisition of Abertis can only take place on an amicable basis and without jeopardizing the group's current ability to remunerate shareholders with a promised growing dividend. Fitch downgraded the rating of Atlantia's new medium-long term issuance program (EMTN) from 3 billion to 'BBB+' from 'A-', with a stable outlook.
(Updated at 9,30am on Monday 24 April)
