The picture of the Italian economy, according to the latest OECD report, continues to worsen. Indeed, the Parisian institution has forecasts for Italian GDP revised downwards, which speak of a contraction of 2,2% for 2012 and 1% for 2013 (against the -0,4% previously estimated), before the timid return to growth in 2014, with an increase of 0,6%. All data are worse than the estimates indicated in the forecast update of 6 September.
In parallel the OECD revised downwards the estimates on the deficit-GDP ratio, expected at 2012% for 3, against 1,7% of the previous forecast. The deficit - GDP should then settle at 2,9% in 2013 and go up again, to 3,4%, in 2014. The same fate for the Italian public debt, expected to grow to 127% for 2012, to 129,6% in 2013 and 131,4% in 2014.
“If our estimate were to materialize – reads the bulletin released by the OECD – it would be a further corrective maneuver is needed on 2014″. The Parisian institution, while acknowledging the work done to adjust public finances, foresees a contraction "as a reflection of austerity measures, a fragile climate of confidence and restrictive credit conditions" and warns of the risks after the elections, if the executive what will happen to the Monti government does not continue with the work of reform.
Even the forecasts for unemployment worsen again, expected at 10,8% for the current year, growing to 11,8% for 2013 and then undergoing a slight decrease, to 11,6%, in 2014.
