There won't be a boom, but neither will there be a recession. Over the next five years, Italian industry will experience a period of moderate growth: +1,9% at constant prices. This is what we read in the latest "Report on the analysis of industrial sectors", produced by Intesa Sanpaolo and Prometeia.
The expansion will be favored by the good international competitiveness of our system and the increase in world demand, factors which will allow exports to grow at an average rate of 4,5%. Domestic demand is weaker, which in the medium term will not offer significant growth opportunities, penalized by the difficulties of families. The key sector for Italian economic growth will therefore be industry.
Outside borders, commodity markets will remain tense and highly volatile. For this reason, margins at an international level cannot be very high. The average operating profitability of Italian manufacturing companies may in any case improve, slightly exceeding 7% at the end of 2015.
The metal products and the mid-tech sectors of mechanical and electrical engineering will show the most accelerated development. The transportation industry is also growing. In the hi-tech area, pharmaceuticals will confirm itself as the most dynamic sector. The production of traditional consumer goods (fashion, furniture, household appliances and food) will also grow on foreign markets at a faster pace than in the five-year period just ended.
According to the report, in recent years our companies have "improved their qualitative positioning: the share of high-end exports in 2009 rose to around 37%, from 29% in 2001". In the same period "the new markets have reached a high weight on our exports (about 45%), even higher than the German competitors (42%)".
Compared to what happens in Germany, however, our companies "take on a more tactical attitude", seizing even temporary niche opportunities in numerous markets, without however being able to give continuity to their commercial relations. It seems "to lack a vision of the system", especially on emerging markets.
