“The Italian crisis is at the heart of the markets' concerns”. This was confirmed this morning by Nick Twidale, a trader who operates in Sydney on behalf of the Japanese giant Rakuten. Insiders working on all financial markets think in practice like him: the Italian powder keg risks blowing up the euro.
THE SINGLE CURRENCY AT THE MINIMUM SINCE NOVEMBER. FLY THE YEN
Under pressure, the single currency dropped on Asian markets overnight to a seven-month low at 1,162 against the dollar. In Asia, orphan of Wall Street's point of reference yesterday closed, the search for safety and security leads to a strengthening of the yen, on the highs of the last month against the dollar at 109,1. Australia's 4-year bond yield is down 2,72 basis points to XNUMX%, from its lows in the past month and a half.
The search for "safe havens" for capital also favors US T bonds this morning: the 2,9-year yield drops to XNUMX%.
IN RED TOKYO, OIL STABLE
Stock markets were also in the red: Tokyo lost 1%, Seoul -0,85, China and Hong Kong also down -0,6%. Only Australia was up slightly. Many stock exchanges closed this morning (India, Singapore, Thailand, Indonesia,). The companies that work for Apple are down, intending to change the entire technological system of the iPhone screen.
Evidence of a rebound for oil after yesterday's new slide (-1,5%). Brent trades this morning at 75,5 (+0,3%). But US crude trades at 66,81, (-1,6%) on the sixth consecutive day of decline.
Brent oil is trying to rebound this morning, rising by 0,3% to 75,5 dollars, yesterday it closed down by 1,5%. In Milan Eni -2%, Saipem -5%, Tenaris -1%.
THUD OF BRAZIL, MONEY FROM THE EU FOR SOUTHERN EUROPE
Also noteworthy is the crash of the Brazilian Stock Exchange -4%, affected by the strike of road hauliers: the prospect of a surge in inflation is not liked.
The European Union is trying to correct (with serious delay) the imbalances in the Community budget. The Commission proposes to shift more than 30 billion from the funds destined for Eastern Europe to Greece, Italy and Spain.
BOTS TOWARDS A POSITIVE RETURN, THE SPREAD AT 236
It is in this climate that Piazza Affari is about to live, simultaneously with the “Final Considerations” of the governor Ignazio Visco, another session of high tension. But the highlight will be theBot auction at six months, generally a routine appointment, also because the amount requested (5,5 billion) is equal to that of maturing securities, today an important test for the confidence of the markets in Italy which, as underlined by the designated premier Carlo Cottarelli, is still growing.
But the tension is skyrocketing. The Italian paper closed yesterday one of the heaviest sessions since the start of the political crisis almost two weeks ago, hitting multi-year lows.
In particular:
* The spread between the yields of Italy and Germany on the 10-year segment closed at 235 basis points from 205 at the final on Friday and from 192 at the start of the session. In the early afternoon, it reached 236 basis points, the highest since the beginning of December 2013. The yield of the BTP 10 reached 2,689% at the end of the session from 2,456% at the end of Friday's session and after a peak of 2,71%, a maximum from August 2014.
SHORT-TERM SECURITIES AND CDS EVEN UNDER PRESSURE
* Session of passion even for the shortest deadlines. 2-year BTPs rose to 0,834% from 0,452% on Friday after peaking at 0,93%, a level not seen since May 2014. The Italy-Germany spread on this maturity, which closed on Friday at 113 points, he went to a maximum of 165 points, the highest since October 2013.
* Credit default swaps on Italian debt have also reached a new high, with the 5-year indicator reaching 174 basis points, a new high since June 2017.
* The Treasury still managed to place the amount offered in the Ctz and Btpei auction, but only thanks to a sharp rise in yield which, compared to -0,275% in April, not only returned positive but also reached the maximum since December 2014 at 0,350%.
* Today it will be the turn of the six-month Bot: also in this case the return could return to positive territory. In closing, on the gray market of Mts, the Buono November 30, 2018 shares a 0,07% increase from -0,421% of the placement at the end of April.
Yesterday also the Spanish paper was weighed down, not only by the Italian situation, but also by the internal one: the Parliament in Madrid has in fact set June XNUMX for the vote for the motion of no confidence against the government of Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy presented by the Socialist party last week.
IN ONE MONTH, PIAZZA AFFARI HAS LOST 10 RAISE POINTS
The stock market situation is not much better.
Piazza Affari has practically burned the rise accumulated since the beginning of the year. The index -2,08% closed at 21.932,69, just above the lows of 2 January (21.613,89). Despite the closure of London and Wall Street, trading volumes were 40% higher than the average of the last ten sessions. Within a month, a ten percentage point lead in terms of performance over the rest of the Eurozone was lost.
THRILLING BANKS: FROM +3% TO -4% IN A FEW HOURS
The collapse was caused by target shooting on the banks, weighed down by the fall of the BTPs in the portfolio. The sector index dropped 4,09% after an initial 3% rebound earlier in the session.
In the end Banco Bpm left 7% on the ground. The other former Popolari are also heavy: Bper and Ubi Banca -6%. The Bigs are also down: Unicredit -3,8%, Intesa -3,3%. Discounts of more than 7% for Mediobanca and Monte Paschi. Even the institutions most involved in the recovery of non-performing loans are under fire: DoBank -8%, Banca Ifis -9%-
Asset management did not fare better: Banca Generali and FinecoBank -7%.
BUT FERRARI RUNS. EXANE: CRISIS FAVORS LUXURY
Some luxury stocks went against the trend, starting with Ferrari +0,7%. A report by Exane claims that the political chaos in Italy does not create any problems for luxury companies, on the contrary, in some respects they could
be favored. Moncler +0,9% has updated the historic record, Brunello Cucinelli is up 2%.
Among the industrialists Fiat Chrysler – 2,12%: Banca Imi confirmed the buy recommendation and the target price at 24,5 euros. Weak Prysmian .2% and Leonardo -2,7%.
AIM: COSTAMP +15%, CONTRACTS FOR SAMSUNG BATTERIES
The utilities are holding up better: Atlantia -1%, Enel -1%, Snam -0,8%.
Telecom -1,81%. Iliad Italia has scheduled a press conference for tomorrow to launch its mobile services. breaking even in terms of ebitda will be possible with a market share of less than 10%.
On the day of the Aim Conference, the leap forward of Costamp Group +15,15% to 3,8 euros should be noted. The company has announced that it has received from Nemak Usa Inc. an order worth 1,72 million dollars for the construction of 2 aluminum die-casting molds for the production of the Samsung Jx Battery Box in the Nemak plant in Alabama .
