Alarm. In closing, on the gray market the new annual Bot auctioned today was traded at a yield of 1,345%, against 1,053% at the auction a month ago: we are at the highest since December last year (1,456%). The "fever" caused by political tensions contrasts with the excellent state of health of the Spanish Bonos: yesterday, the Financial Times reported Madrid's intention to proceed next year with issuing a 50-year bond.
Meanwhile, yesterday afternoon, after a year and a half, Italian bonds returned to yield more than the Spanish ones. Yesterday the yields of the Italian and Iberian ten-year benchmarks - respectively May 2023 and October 2023 - realigned just under 4,50%, to then end the session with a gap of one basis point: 4,53% for Italy, 4,52, XNUMX% the Spanish one.
The novelty comes on the eve of the Italian Treasury auctions: it starts today with the offer of 11,5 billion euro of Treasury bonds - 8,5 at 12 months and 3 at 101-day flexible bonds. Thursday will instead be the turn of medium-long term placements, among which the launch of the new November 2016 three-year BTP stands out, coupon 2,75%, with an offer of between 3 and 4 billion. There will then be up to 1,5 billion for the reopening of the 15th year of September 2028 and up to 2 billion in total for the two CCTEUs in March 2018 and November 2018.
Last disturbing note: the Italian Treasury has announced that it will ask the parliament for authorization to increase the ceiling on net issues for 2013, from 80 to 98 billion euros.
The Italian political emergency is the only negative note in an international situation in pink: the Syrian tension is easing, signs of a strong recovery are coming from China, companies in Europe are revising their estimates upwards.
ASIA
The United States stock market is up: Dow Jones index +0,7%, Nasdaq index +0,6%, S&P index +0,6%. Yesterday the Dow Jones posted its best session since last July 11 (+0,94%). The S&P is up from five consecutive sessions. Big news ahead for the Dow Jones basket. Starting from the session of 21 September, they will join the restricted club (30 shares) of Dow Jones Visa +2,5% Nike +1,7% and Goldman Sachs +3%. These three stocks will be replaced by Alcoa -0,9%, Bank of America +0,9% and Hewlett-Packard -1,2%. The rise in Frankfurt +2,2%, Paris +1,9% and Madrid +1,8% was noticeable.
The Bund falls in price and its yield reaches 2,03% (+7 basis points), on the highs of the last 17 months. Piazza Affari advances, but with the handbrake on by politics: the Ftse Mib index closes up by 0,51%.
THE FLOP
1/ MONTE PASCHI
Heavy thud by Banca Monte Paschi -4,81%, suspended yesterday on the downside. The probable capital increase of 2,5 billion euros weighs heavily, almost equal to the current stock market capitalization of the stock, which will begin to be discussed in tomorrow's board of directors together with the guidelines of the industrial plan agreed with the EU which will be approved on September 24th.
Subsequently, the plan will be sent to the Treasury for subsequent transmission to the European Commission. A restructuring plan that could lead to further cost cuts, including yet another streamlining of branches.
2/ FIAT INDUSTRIAL
Sergio Marchionne deserted the Frankfurt show not to close the age-old Chrysler case but, it seems, to prepare for the debut of CNH Industrial which will take place by the end of September on the US market with a group managing director (a position not covered today).
In Milan, meanwhile, the Fiat Industrial stock lost 2,47% because UBS reduced its recommendation from neutral to sell and the target price from 8,5 to 8 euros (at this price the share would trade at 10 times the 'eps 2014). “We see substantial downside risk to consensus estimates due to weaker-than-expected demand for farm equipment in the US and trucks in Brazil,” UBS analysts said. Analysts at the Swiss group expect profits to fall 10% yoy as demand for farm equipment comes under pressure due to lower corn prices. At the same time, Iveco's profitability will continue to suffer with volumes affected by the weakness of the Brazilian truck market.
INSIDE BUSINESS PLACE
Unicredit's march continues +1,1%, third consecutive day of rise. Understanding +2,4%. The good momentum continued among the insurance companies Fondiaria Sai +1,9%. Generals +0,5%. In the asset management segment, Azimut -0,6%, Banca Generali +5,3%, Mediolanum +0,2%. Mediaset unchanged, in a very volatile session which saw the stock of the snake rise by up to 3%.
Among the titles of the industry. Fiat -0,6% after the leap on the eve. Pirelli +3,4%. The Stoxx index of automotive companies rose by 2,7%. Fiat Industrial -2,5%. UBS cut rating to “sell” from “neutral”. Enel+2,2%. A2A +0,4%. Enel Green Power -1,7%. Luxury is highlighted: Ferragamo +4%, Tod's +0,5%.
Out of the main basket it flies sapphire +4,6%. Berenberg started hedging with a "buy" and a target price of 16,5 euros.Yoox +5,3% after a partnership agreement with Harper's Bazar. Brunello Cucinelli +1,5%, marked new all-time highs.
